Miami Heat
0-4
Atlanta Hawks
2-2
Win Probability
The Miami Heat visit Atlanta Hawks in a matchup where the home side holds the clearer path to victory. Giannis Antetokounmpo projects to clear 42 combined points, rebounds and assists with 49% probability, while Jalen Johnson has a 48% chance of exceeding 36 in the same category—a battle of dual offensive engines that will largely determine the outcome. CJ McCollum carries a 49% chance of surpassing 24 combined points, rebounds and assists. On similar win-probability shapes across eight other games, AccuScore's favored side converted at a 50% rate. For Miami to escape, it will need to overcome a Hawks team built to win at home.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | ATL | EV | MIA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | -6.5 | -9900 | -27.2% | -9900 | -22.3% |
| Book | ATL | EV | MIA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -148 | +0.9% | +118 | -7.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -140 | +2.1% | +121 | -6.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | 239.5 | -117 | -0.5% | -115 | -6.4% |
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NBA
AccuScore's simulation makes Atlanta Hawks 61% to beat Miami Heat (39%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Atlanta Hawks the more likely winner at 61%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Atlanta Hawks a 61% chance of beating Miami Heat, against 39% for Miami Heat. Atlanta Hawks are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Miami Heat have won 0 of their last 4 (L-L-L-L, most recent first).
Atlanta Hawks have won 2 of their last 4 (L-L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 70 times since 2010: Miami Heat 44, Atlanta Hawks 26. The last meeting, on Apr 12, 2026, finished Atlanta Hawks 117, Miami Heat 143.
Miami Heat are 587-273 as favourite and 207-299 as underdog, and 363-354 on the road (51% of 717 games, 2010–2026).
Atlanta Hawks are 401-212 as favourite and 246-446 as underdog, and 394-287 at home (58% of 681 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | MIA | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 587-273 | 401-212 |
| As underdog | 207-299 | 246-446 |
| At home | 469-245 | 394-287 |
| On the road | 363-354 | 287-403 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →