Orlando Magic
1-2
Toronto Raptors
2-1
Win Probability
The Orlando Magic visit Toronto to face a Raptors side that the simulation favors clearly. Franz Wagner projects a 48% chance at exceeding 33 points, rebounds and assists, while RJ Barrett sits at 47% for the same threshold—a sign the game hinges on wing production and perimeter execution from both teams. Wendell Carter has a 49% chance of topping 28 combined, matching the likelihood that Scottie Barnes clears 33, so interior play will determine spacing and efficiency on both ends. AccuScore's record on home-favored matchups of this probability shape stands at 55% across 1,231 graded games. For Orlando to pull the upset, its role players would need to outperform the Raptors' depth in supporting their stars.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | TOR | EV | ORL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | -6.5 | -100000 | -27.0% | -5456 | -22.5% |
| Book | TOR | EV | ORL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -200 | -3.5% | +166 | +0.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -187 | -2.4% | +162 | -0.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | 223.5 | -111 | +2.1% | -106 | -6.1% |
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NBA
AccuScore's simulation makes Toronto Raptors 62% to beat Orlando Magic (38%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Toronto Raptors the more likely winner at 62%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Toronto Raptors a 62% chance of beating Orlando Magic, against 38% for Orlando Magic. Toronto Raptors are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Orlando Magic and Toronto Raptors come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Orlando Magic have won 1 of their last 3 (W-L-L, most recent first).
Toronto Raptors have won 2 of their last 3 (L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 60 times since 2010: Orlando Magic 18, Toronto Raptors 42. The last meeting, on Mar 29, 2026, finished Orlando Magic 87, Toronto Raptors 139.
Orlando Magic are 285-175 as favourite and 234-563 as underdog, and 223-441 on the road (34% of 664 games, 2010–2026).
Toronto Raptors are 478-217 as favourite and 205-409 as underdog, and 408-283 at home (59% of 691 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | ORL | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 285-175 | 478-217 |
| As underdog | 234-563 | 205-409 |
| At home | 323-336 | 408-283 |
| On the road | 223-441 | 309-377 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →