Seattle Kraken
7-4
Calgary Flames
5-6
Win Probability
This matchup between the Seattle Kraken and Calgary Flames shapes up as a coin-flip at the Scotiabank Saddledome, with the simulation barely favoring the hosts. Brandon Montour projects to beat the 0.5-point mark in 45% of outcomes, while Matt Coronato sits just behind at 47%—either could be the game's crucial contributor. The game hinges on scoring volume: the model expects a tightly matched offensive output, but only rates a 40% chance the combined total exceeds the market line. AccuScore's track record on similar home-lean games across 2,454 graded matchups stands at 49% success, a cautionary note on the razor-thin margin. For Seattle to pull out the road win, the Kraken would need to overcome Calgary's slight home advantage in a game where neither team's offence is projected to run away with it.
| Book | CAL | EV | SEA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -126 | -4.4% | -103 | -1.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -119 | -3.2% | +103 | -0.2% |
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NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Calgary Flames 51% to beat Seattle Kraken (49%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Calgary Flames the more likely winner at 51%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Calgary Flames a 51% chance of beating Seattle Kraken, against 49% for Seattle Kraken. Calgary Flames are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Seattle Kraken and Calgary Flames come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Seattle Kraken have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-W-L-L, most recent first).
Calgary Flames have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 20 times since 2021: Seattle Kraken 9, Calgary Flames 11. The last meeting, on Oct 4, 2026, finished Calgary Flames 1, Seattle Kraken 6.
Seattle Kraken are 71-55 as favourite and 115-187 as underdog, and 94-126 on the road (43% of 220 games, 2021–2026).
Calgary Flames are 303-229 as favourite and 233-336 as underdog, and 303-261 at home (54% of 564 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | SEA | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 71-55 | 303-229 |
| As underdog | 115-187 | 233-336 |
| At home | 97-119 | 303-261 |
| On the road | 94-126 | 243-315 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →