Tampa Bay Lightning
7-3
Nashville Predators
4-3
Win Probability
The Tampa Bay Lightning travel to Nashville to face the Predators in a matchup where the simulation favours the visitors. Nikita Kucherov carries a 68% chance of posting more than 0.5 points, while Roman Josi projects at 53%—a gap that reflects where this game is decided. The Lightning's depth advantage shows across the lineup: Jake Guentzel sits at 53% and Brandon Hagel at 52%, compared to Nashville's Steven Stamkos at 50% and Filip Forsberg at 48%. AccuScore's record on games shaped like this one stands at 49% over 2,696 graded contests. For the Predators to pull the upset, their depth scorers would need to outpace what the model expects from Tampa Bay's talent advantage.
| Book | NSH | EV | TB | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +134 | -2.7% | -191 | -4.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +143 | -0.9% | -164 | -2.0% |
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NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Tampa Bay Lightning 60% to beat Nashville Predators (40%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Tampa Bay Lightning the more likely winner at 60%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Nashville Predators a 40% chance of beating Tampa Bay Lightning, against 60% for Tampa Bay Lightning. Nashville Predators are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How Tampa Bay Lightning and Nashville Predators come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Tampa Bay Lightning have won 3 of their last 5 (L-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
Nashville Predators have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 31 times since 2011: Tampa Bay Lightning 18, Nashville Predators 13. The last meeting, on Mar 29, 2026, finished Nashville Predators 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 3.
Tampa Bay Lightning are 574-345 as favourite and 133-163 as underdog, and 317-299 on the road (51% of 616 games, 2011–2026).
Nashville Predators are 370-260 as favourite and 222-293 as underdog, and 339-249 at home (58% of 588 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | TB | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 574-345 | 370-260 |
| As underdog | 133-163 | 222-293 |
| At home | 406-216 | 339-249 |
| On the road | 317-299 | 270-314 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →