Calgary Flames
5-6
Colorado Avalanche
6-5
Win Probability
The simulation favours the Colorado Avalanche decisively in this matchup at home against the Calgary Flames. Nathan MacKinnon carries a 74% chance of recording more than 0.5 points, while Martin Necas projects at 63%—both well above Calgary's scoring threats, where Joel Farabee leads at 43%. The game turns on whether Calgary can generate enough offensive volume to stay close; AccuScore has gone 8-for-8 on the last eight games with this win-probability shape. For the Flames to pull the upset, they would need production from depth contributors like Matt Coronato to break through at rates above his 40% projection.
| Book | COL | EV | CAL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -381 | +3.1% | +296 | -18.7% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -373 | +3.4% | +319 | -16.9% |
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NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Colorado Avalanche 84% to beat Calgary Flames (16%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Colorado Avalanche the more likely winner at 84%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Colorado Avalanche a 84% chance of beating Calgary Flames, against 16% for Calgary Flames. Colorado Avalanche are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Calgary Flames and Colorado Avalanche come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Calgary Flames have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-L, most recent first).
Colorado Avalanche have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 49 times since 2011: Calgary Flames 22, Colorado Avalanche 27. The last meeting, on Oct 8, 2026, finished Colorado Avalanche 7, Calgary Flames 3.
Calgary Flames are 303-229 as favourite and 233-336 as underdog, and 243-315 on the road (44% of 558 games, 2011–2026).
Colorado Avalanche are 441-253 as favourite and 190-274 as underdog, and 346-243 at home (59% of 589 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | CAL | COL |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 303-229 | 441-253 |
| As underdog | 233-336 | 190-274 |
| At home | 303-261 | 346-243 |
| On the road | 243-315 | 294-296 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →