Houston Rockets
4-0
Milwaukee Bucks
1-3
Win Probability
The Houston Rockets visit Milwaukee to face a Bucks team struggling early, and AccuScore's simulation decisively favours the visitors. The model projects Houston will control pace and shot selection, with its backcourt generating enough volume to overcome Milwaukee's home court. On similar game shapes across eight prior matchups, the favoured away side won six times. For Milwaukee to pull the upset, it would need to force turnovers and limit second chances—the simulation suggests the game turns on transition efficiency and offensive rebounding, where the Rockets' depth gives them the clearer path.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H HOU ML
HOU -233
-2.1% EV
64.9% leads · push 3.1%
bet365 ↗
1H MIL ML
MIL +185
-2.9% EV
32.0% leads · push 3.1%
bet365 ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
| Book | Line | MIL | EV | HOU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair ↗ | +8.5 | -115 | -3.1% | -105 | -1.4% |
| bet365 ↗ | +8 | -111 | -3.8% | -116 | -2.0% |
| Novig ↗ | +8.5 | -108 | -1.7% | +104 | +0.8% |
| ProphetX ↗ | +8.5 | -111 | -2.3% | +106 | +1.3% |
| Book | MIL | EV | HOU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair ↗ | +240 | -3.4% | -333 | -2.8% |
| bet365 ↗ | +265 | +0.0% | -333 | -2.8% |
| William Hill ↗ | +260 | -0.7% | -345 | -3.2% |
| Novig ↗ | +292 | +3.7% | -308 | -1.9% |
| ProphetX ↗ | +284 | +2.6% | -301 | -1.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair ↗ | 225.5 | -114 | -3.0% | -108 | -1.9% |
| bet365 ↗ | 225.5 | -125 | -4.9% | -110 | -2.4% |
| William Hill ↗ | 227.5 | -118 | -8.0% | -118 | +0.3% |
| Novig ↗ | 226.5 | +100 | -2.1% | -102 | +1.6% |
| ProphetX ↗ | 226.5 | -102 | -2.6% | -106 | +0.6% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 27.4%
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NBA
AccuScore's simulation makes Houston Rockets 73% to beat Milwaukee Bucks (27%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Houston Rockets the more likely winner at 73%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Milwaukee Bucks a 27% chance of beating Houston Rockets, against 73% for Houston Rockets. Milwaukee Bucks are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How Houston Rockets and Milwaukee Bucks come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Houston Rockets have won 4 of their last 4 (W-W-W-W, most recent first).
Milwaukee Bucks have won 1 of their last 4 (W-L-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 31 times since 2010: Houston Rockets 17, Milwaukee Bucks 14. The last meeting, on Apr 1, 2026, finished Milwaukee Bucks 113, Houston Rockets 119.
Houston Rockets are 543-249 as favourite and 179-334 as underdog, and 308-375 on the road (45% of 683 games, 2010–2026).
Milwaukee Bucks are 511-251 as favourite and 173-371 as underdog, and 419-265 at home (61% of 684 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | HOU | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 543-249 | 511-251 |
| As underdog | 179-334 | 173-371 |
| At home | 433-255 | 419-265 |
| On the road | 308-375 | 306-378 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →