San Antonio Spurs
2-2
Utah Jazz
1-3
Win Probability
The San Antonio Spurs travel to Utah Jazz as clear favourites in this matchup. AccuScore's model strongly favours the visiting Spurs, projecting them to control the game's tempo and spacing. Utah will need to generate consistent perimeter shooting—the simulation hinges on whether the Jazz can sustain outside scoring—but San Antonio's defensive discipline has historically been the deciding factor in games shaped like this one, where the model leans this decisively: across eight comparable situations, the favoured team won all eight. For Utah to pull the upset at home, their role players would need to outperform their season patterns significantly while the Spurs' offence faltered, an unlikely confluence given San Antonio's offensive consistency.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H SA ML
SA -357
-2.7% EV
71.3% leads · push 3.3%
bet365 ↗
1H UT ML
UT +310
+3.7% EV
25.4% leads · push 3.3%
Pinnacle ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
| Book | Line | UT | EV | SA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +13 | -103 | +3.7% | -110 | -6.5% |
| Betfair ↗ | +12.5 | -110 | +0.5% | -125 | -7.6% |
| Betano ↗ | +12.5 | -105 | +1.6% | -115 | -6.0% |
| bet365 ↗ | +12 | -109 | -0.6% | -125 | -6.2% |
| Novig ↗ | +13.5 | -108 | +3.9% | +106 | -4.7% |
| Book | UT | EV | SA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | +500 | +9.4% | -597 | -3.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 234 | -112 | -4.6% | -104 | +1.1% |
| Betfair ↗ | 234.5 | -106 | -4.5% | -116 | -0.5% |
| Betano ↗ | 234.5 | -110 | -5.3% | -111 | +0.6% |
| bet365 ↗ | 234 | -120 | -5.9% | -109 | -0.1% |
| William Hill ↗ | 233.5 | -118 | -4.6% | -118 | -3.0% |
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NBA
AccuScore's simulation makes San Antonio Spurs 80% to beat Utah Jazz (20%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes San Antonio Spurs the more likely winner at 80%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Utah Jazz a 20% chance of beating San Antonio Spurs, against 80% for San Antonio Spurs. Utah Jazz are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How San Antonio Spurs and Utah Jazz come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
San Antonio Spurs have won 2 of their last 4 (W-W-L-L, most recent first).
Utah Jazz have won 1 of their last 4 (L-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 60 times since 2010: San Antonio Spurs 38, Utah Jazz 22. The last meeting, on Jan 22, 2026, finished San Antonio Spurs 126, Utah Jazz 109.
San Antonio Spurs are 637-213 as favourite and 162-312 as underdog, and 349-347 on the road (50% of 696 games, 2010–2026).
Utah Jazz are 420-188 as favourite and 195-468 as underdog, and 386-281 at home (58% of 667 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | SA | UT |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 637-213 | 420-188 |
| As underdog | 162-312 | 195-468 |
| At home | 465-225 | 386-281 |
| On the road | 349-347 | 260-409 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →