Oklahoma City Thunder
4-0
Dallas Mavericks
2-2
Win Probability
The Oklahoma City Thunder travel to Dallas to face the Mavericks in a matchup between the league's hottest team and a struggling home side still finding its footing. AccuScore's simulation clearly favours Oklahoma City, projecting a close contest that hinges on three-point shooting—the Thunder's perimeter game will need to stay hot to pull away, while Dallas must tighten its interior defence to keep the margin manageable. On games shaped this way, the model's side has won 59% of the time across more than a thousand similar spots. For the Mavericks to steal this one at home, their offence would need to exceed projections while holding Oklahoma City's scorers well below their simulated output.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H OKC ML
OKC -185
-2.7% EV
59.2% leads · push 3.5%
bet365 ↗
1H DAL ML
DAL +164
+1.0% EV
37.3% leads · push 3.5%
Pinnacle ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
OKC -3.5 -108
-2.9% EV
48.9% covers
bet365 ↗
1H Spread
DAL +3.5 -111
-1.5% EV
51.1% covers
Betano ↗
1H Total
O 111.5 -104
+13.5% EV
64.8% over
Pinnacle ↗
1H Total
U 111.5 -108
-16.1% EV
35.3% under
Betano ↗
| Book | Line | DAL | EV | OKC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +6.5 | -116 | -2.8% | +102 | -0.2% |
| Betfair ↗ | +6.5 | -110 | -1.6% | -110 | -2.9% |
| Betano ↗ | +6.5 | -118 | -3.2% | -105 | -1.9% |
| bet365 ↗ | +5.5 | -104 | -3.1% | -120 | -2.1% |
| Novig ↗ | +6.5 | -111 | -1.8% | +108 | +1.3% |
| Book | DAL | EV | OKC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +189 | -0.7% | -217 | -1.9% |
| Betfair ↗ | +188 | -0.9% | -250 | -3.9% |
| Betano ↗ | +177 | -2.8% | -238 | -3.2% |
| bet365 ↗ | +190 | -0.6% | -238 | -3.2% |
| William Hill ↗ | +175 | -3.1% | -227 | -2.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 228 | -110 | -0.1% | -106 | -3.5% |
| Betfair ↗ | 229.5 | -108 | -3.0% | -114 | -1.9% |
| Betano ↗ | 228.5 | -115 | -2.3% | -105 | -2.2% |
| bet365 ↗ | 228.5 | -111 | -1.5% | -110 | -3.2% |
| William Hill ↗ | 228.5 | -125 | -4.1% | -110 | -3.2% |
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NBA
AccuScore's simulation makes Oklahoma City Thunder 66% to beat Dallas Mavericks (34%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Oklahoma City Thunder the more likely winner at 66%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Dallas Mavericks a 34% chance of beating Oklahoma City Thunder, against 66% for Oklahoma City Thunder. Dallas Mavericks are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Oklahoma City Thunder have won 4 of their last 4 (W-W-W-W, most recent first).
Dallas Mavericks have won 2 of their last 4 (W-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 76 times since 2010: Oklahoma City Thunder 42, Dallas Mavericks 34. The last meeting, on Mar 1, 2026, finished Oklahoma City Thunder 100, Dallas Mavericks 87.
Oklahoma City Thunder are 682-251 as favourite and 160-271 as underdog, and 377-331 on the road (53% of 708 games, 2010–2026).
Dallas Mavericks are 440-217 as favourite and 225-420 as underdog, and 388-292 at home (57% of 680 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | OKC | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 682-251 | 440-217 |
| As underdog | 160-271 | 225-420 |
| At home | 495-221 | 388-292 |
| On the road | 377-331 | 310-380 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →