EPL • Sat, Nov 28, 17:30
Ipswich Town hosts Aston Villa in a close contest where the model favours the visitors slightly. The simulation projects a low-scoring affair, with Aston Villa averaging 1.6 goals and Ipswich Town 1.2, making the most likely outcome a 1–1 draw at 12% of runs. Everything hinges on whether either offence can break through; Ipswich Town would need to keep Aston Villa's attack subdued and create chances of their own to pull off the upset, but the simulation gives them just a 30% path to victory.
See the model's win probabilities, projected and most-likely score, the positive-EV edge with its price, the record behind it, and the full write-up — for this game and every game.
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EPL
AccuScore's simulation makes Aston Villa 44% to win, Ipswich Town 30%, with a 26% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Aston Villa the more likely winner at 44%, with a 26% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Ipswich Town a 30% chance of beating Aston Villa, with 44% for Aston Villa and 26% for a draw. Ipswich Town are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How Aston Villa and Ipswich Town come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Aston Villa have won 2 of their last 5, drawing 3 (D-D-W-W-D, most recent first).
Ipswich Town have won 1 of their last 5, drawing 2 (L-D-D-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 6 times since 2017: Aston Villa 3, Ipswich Town 0, 3 drawn. The last meeting, on Feb 15, 2025, finished Ipswich Town 1, Aston Villa 1.