Napoli
Sassuolo
Win Probability
Moneyline
NAP
-143
65.9% win prob
EV +6.0%
Pinnacle
Draw
Draw
+333
22% prob
EV -1.5%
Pinnacle
Moneyline
SAS
+400
11.7% win prob
EV -20.7%
bet365
Napoli travels to face Sassuolo in a fixture where the simulation decisively favours the visitors. AccuScore's model projects a low-scoring affair, with the most likely outcome a 1-0 Napoli win occurring in 13% of simulations. The game turns on whether Sassuolo can generate enough attacking threat to stay competitive; across eight statistically similar matchups, the favoured side won five times. On games shaped this way, AccuScore's under calls have graded at 52% accuracy historically. For Sassuolo to upset the projection, the hosts would need to convert limited chances into goals while keeping Napoli's attack quiet.
| Book | NAP | EV | Draw | EV | SAS | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | -143 | +6.0% | +333 | -1.5% | +328 | -25.0% |
| bet365 ↗ | -167 | +2.7% | +300 | -5.2% | +400 | -20.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3 | -114 | -11.9% | -104 | +9.2% |
| bet365 ↗ | 2.5 | -189 | -11.1% | +150 | +11.4% |
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Serie A
AccuScore's simulation makes Napoli 66% to win, Sassuolo 12%, with a 22% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Napoli the more likely winner at 66%, with a 22% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Sassuolo a 12% chance of beating Napoli, with 66% for Napoli and 22% for a draw. Sassuolo are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How Napoli and Sassuolo come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Napoli have won 1 of their last 5, drawing 2 (D-L-W-D-L, most recent first).
Sassuolo have won 0 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 21 times since 2014: Napoli 13, Sassuolo 2, 6 drawn. The last meeting, on Jan 17, 2026, finished Sassuolo 0, Napoli 1.