Rayo Vallecano
Real Betis
Win Probability
Moneyline
RAY
+400
16.9% win prob
EV -7.7%
bet365
Draw
Draw
+323
21% prob
EV -5.4%
Pinnacle
Moneyline
BET
-149
62.0% win prob
EV +1.8%
Betano
Real Betis hosts Rayo Vallecano in a fixture where the simulation decisively favors the home side. AccuScore's 50,000 simulations project Rayo Vallecano to score 1.2 goals while Real Betis reaches 2.4, with the most likely outcome a 2–1 victory for Betis. The deciding factor is whether Rayo Vallecano can generate enough attacking threat on the road; the combined score sits right at the pivot between over and under. When the model has favored a team this strongly in the past, that team won 61% of the time across 6,876 graded games. For Rayo Vallecano to upset this projection, they would need to neutralize Betis's home advantage and create chances at an above-simulation rate.
| Book | RAY | EV | Draw | EV | BET | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +376 | -9.8% | +323 | -5.4% | -154 | +1.1% |
| Betano ↗ | +390 | -8.6% | +310 | -6.7% | -149 | +1.8% |
| bet365 ↗ | +400 | -7.7% | +300 | -7.8% | -161 | +0.3% |
| William Hill ↗ | +360 | -11.1% | +300 | -7.8% | -154 | +1.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3 | -102 | +9.2% | -116 | -11.7% |
| Betano ↗ | 3 | +102 | +10.2% | -120 | -12.2% |
| bet365 ↗ | 2.5 | -161 | +6.9% | +130 | -15.8% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 62.0%
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La Liga
AccuScore's simulation makes Real Betis 62% to win, Rayo Vallecano 17%, with a 21% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Real Betis the more likely winner at 62%, with a 21% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Real Betis a 62% chance of beating Rayo Vallecano, with 17% for Rayo Vallecano and 21% for a draw. Real Betis are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Rayo Vallecano and Real Betis come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Rayo Vallecano have won 1 of their last 5, drawing 2 (L-W-L-D-D, most recent first).
Real Betis have won 3 of their last 5, drawing 1 (W-W-D-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 12 times since 2018: Rayo Vallecano 1, Real Betis 5, 6 drawn. The last meeting, on Feb 21, 2026, finished Rayo Vallecano 1, Real Betis 1.