Villarreal
Celta de Vigo
Win Probability
Moneyline
VIL
+158
46.0% win prob
EV +9.3%
Pinnacle
Draw
Draw
+250
30% prob
EV +2.7%
Pinnacle
Moneyline
CEL
+175
23.9% win prob
EV -17.1%
bet365
Villarreal travels to Celta de Vigo in a fixture where the simulation clearly favours the visitors. The model projects a low-scoring affair, with Villarreal's most likely outcome a 1–0 victory occurring in 14% of simulations. Celta will need to tighten their shape; across eight statistically similar matchups, the favoured side won five. The game turns on whether Celta can generate enough in attack to lift the combined total above the market's expectation, a outcome the simulation flags as unlikely. For the hosts to escape with a result, they must find a way to break Villarreal's structure and force the away side into defensive vulnerability.
| Book | VIL | EV | Draw | EV | CEL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +158 | +9.3% | +250 | +2.7% | +168 | -18.0% |
| bet365 ↗ | +140 | +5.2% | +240 | +1.2% | +175 | -17.1% |
| William Hill ↗ | +140 | +5.2% | +230 | -0.3% | +175 | -17.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3 | +129 | -16.6% | -159 | +8.5% |
| bet365 ↗ | 2.5 | -110 | -11.2% | -110 | +6.6% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 46.0%
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La Liga
AccuScore's simulation makes Villarreal 46% to win, Celta de Vigo 24%, with a 30% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Villarreal the more likely winner at 46%, with a 30% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Celta de Vigo a 24% chance of beating Villarreal, with 46% for Villarreal and 30% for a draw. Celta de Vigo are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How Villarreal and Celta de Vigo come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Villarreal have won 2 of their last 5, drawing 1 (W-L-W-D-L, most recent first).
Celta de Vigo have won 1 of their last 5, drawing 3 (D-L-D-W-D, most recent first).
The teams have met 18 times since 2017: Villarreal 9, Celta de Vigo 6, 3 drawn. The last meeting, on Apr 26, 2026, finished Celta de Vigo 1, Villarreal 2.