Barcelona
Deportivo La Coruna
Win Probability
Moneyline
BAR
-333
85.1% win prob
EV +5.3%
Pinnacle
Draw
Draw
+536
10% prob
EV -16.9%
Pinnacle
Moneyline
DEP
+1000
4.5% win prob
EV -25.3%
bet365
Barcelona travel to Deportivo La Coruna as clear favorites in this La Liga clash, with the simulation decisively favoring the visitors. The model projects a commanding performance from Barcelona, predicting a lopsided scoreline that would see Deportivo's attack struggle to generate chances. Historical games shaped this way—where one side received 80–90% backing—saw the favored team win 75% of the time across 1,968 comparable matchups. For Deportivo to pull off an upset, their defense would need to be substantially more organized than the projection suggests, while Barcelona's attack would have to falter in ways the 50,000 simulations did not anticipate. The road team's depth should prove decisive if this breaks according to form.
| Book | BAR | EV | Draw | EV | DEP | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | -333 | +5.3% | +536 | -16.9% | +661 | -32.9% |
| bet365 ↗ | -455 | +1.9% | +525 | -17.5% | +1000 | -25.3% |
| William Hill ↗ | -400 | +3.2% | +500 | -18.8% | +850 | -28.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 4 | +104 | -2.4% | -125 | -1.2% |
| bet365 ↗ | 3.5 | -125 | +0.9% | +100 | -6.6% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 85.1%
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La Liga
AccuScore's simulation makes Barcelona 85% to win, Deportivo La Coruna 5%, with a 10% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Barcelona the more likely winner at 85%, with a 10% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Deportivo La Coruna a 5% chance of beating Barcelona, with 85% for Barcelona and 10% for a draw. Deportivo La Coruna are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How Barcelona and Deportivo La Coruna come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Barcelona have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
Deportivo La Coruna have won 1 of their last 5, drawing 2 (D-W-L-D-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 2 times since 2017: Barcelona 2, Deportivo La Coruna 0. The last meeting, on Apr 29, 2018, finished Barcelona 4, Deportivo La Coruna 2.