Athletic Bilbao
Malaga
Win Probability
Moneyline
ATH
-130
54.2% win prob
EV -2.1%
Pinnacle
Draw
Draw
+283
26% prob
EV -1.0%
Pinnacle
Moneyline
MLG
+375
20.2% win prob
EV -2.0%
bet365
Athletic Bilbao travels to Málaga as the clear favourite in this La Liga encounter. The simulation leans decisively toward the visitors, projecting a low-scoring affair where finishing efficiency will separate the sides. Málaga's defence will need to maintain shape throughout, as Athletic Bilbao's attacking threat centres on converting the chances they generate in open play. On games where the model has favoured one side this strongly, that side won 52% of the time across nearly 11,000 previous matchups. For Málaga to upset the projection, they would need to score multiple goals against a travelling opponent that the simulation expects to control possession and territory.
| Book | ATH | EV | Draw | EV | MLG | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | -130 | -2.1% | +283 | -1.0% | +347 | -4.9% |
| Betano ↗ | -133 | -2.5% | +270 | -2.6% | +370 | -2.5% |
| bet365 ↗ | -143 | -3.9% | +275 | -2.0% | +375 | -2.0% |
| William Hill ↗ | -137 | -3.1% | +260 | -3.9% | +350 | -4.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3 | +137 | -1.8% | -169 | -1.9% |
| Betano ↗ | 3 | +140 | -1.4% | -167 | -1.7% |
| bet365 ↗ | 2.5 | -125 | -1.8% | +100 | -3.5% |
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
La Liga
AccuScore's simulation makes Athletic Bilbao 54% to win, Malaga 20%, with a 26% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Athletic Bilbao the more likely winner at 54%, with a 26% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Malaga a 20% chance of beating Athletic Bilbao, with 54% for Athletic Bilbao and 26% for a draw. Malaga are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How Athletic Bilbao and Malaga come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Athletic Bilbao have won 2 of their last 5, drawing 2 (D-W-W-L-D, most recent first).
Malaga have won 0 of their last 5, drawing 2 (L-L-D-L-D, most recent first).
The teams have met 2 times since 2017: Athletic Bilbao 1, Malaga 0, 1 drawn. The last meeting, on Feb 25, 2018, finished Malaga 1, Athletic Bilbao 2.