Deportivo Alavés
Real Madrid
Win Probability
Moneyline
ALA
+2200
7.9% win prob
EV +40.8%
William Hill
Draw
Draw
+850
16% prob
EV +24.1%
William Hill
Moneyline
RMA
-714
76.5% win prob
EV -6.4%
Betano
Real Madrid hosts Deportivo Alavés in a fixture where the simulation decisively favours the home side. AccuScore's model projects a comfortable victory for the Blancos, with the away side facing a steep climb. In games shaped this decisively, the favoured side has won 68% of the time across nearly 4,000 graded contests. For Alavés to pull off an upset, their defence would need to neutralise Real Madrid's attacking threat substantially—a tall order on the road. The margin of victory, rather than the result itself, remains the primary variable.
| Book | ALA | EV | Draw | EV | RMA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +1346 | +7.1% | +797 | +20.0% | -714 | -6.4% |
| Betano ↗ | +1850 | +27.0% | +700 | +12.4% | -714 | -6.4% |
| bet365 ↗ | +2000 | +33.0% | +700 | +12.4% | -909 | -7.5% |
| William Hill ↗ | +2200 | +40.8% | +850 | +24.1% | -909 | -7.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3.5 | -118 | -0.3% | -103 | -4.5% |
| Betano ↗ | 3.5 | -118 | -0.3% | +100 | -3.8% |
| bet365 ↗ | 3.5 | -125 | -1.5% | +100 | -3.8% |
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La Liga
AccuScore's simulation makes Real Madrid 77% to win, Deportivo Alavés 8%, with a 16% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Real Madrid the more likely winner at 77%, with a 16% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Real Madrid a 77% chance of beating Deportivo Alavés, with 8% for Deportivo Alavés and 16% for a draw. Real Madrid are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Deportivo Alavés and Real Madrid come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Deportivo Alavés have won 0 of their last 5, drawing 2 (D-L-D-L-L, most recent first).
Real Madrid have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 16 times since 2017: Deportivo Alavés 2, Real Madrid 14. The last meeting, on Apr 21, 2026, finished Deportivo Alavés 1, Real Madrid 2.