Osasuna
Valencia
Win Probability
Moneyline
OSA
+238
16.6% win prob
EV -21.9%
Pinnacle
Draw
Draw
+240
24% prob
EV -9.0%
bet365
Moneyline
VAL
+121
59.3% win prob
EV +15.5%
Pinnacle
Valencia hosts Osasuna in a fixture where the simulation decisively favors the home side. The model projects a low-scoring affair centered on Valencia's ability to limit chances; across eight statistically similar games, the favored team won five. Osasuna's attack will need to break through a Valencia defense that the projections expect to concede fewer than two goals, while any path to an upset runs through forcing the hosts into mistakes in transition. When AccuScore has leaned this strongly toward a side, it won 52% of the time. Osasuna's best hope lies in an early goal to disrupt Valencia's setup play and steal a result on the road.
| Book | OSA | EV | Draw | EV | VAL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +238 | -21.9% | +234 | -9.8% | +121 | +15.5% |
| bet365 ↗ | +230 | -22.6% | +240 | -9.0% | +105 | +10.8% |
| William Hill ↗ | +230 | -22.6% | +240 | -9.0% | +110 | +12.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 2.5 | +110 | +5.2% | -133 | -8.5% |
| bet365 ↗ | 2.5 | +100 | +2.6% | -125 | -7.3% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 59.3%
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La Liga
AccuScore's simulation makes Valencia 59% to win, Osasuna 17%, with a 24% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Valencia the more likely winner at 59%, with a 24% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Valencia a 59% chance of beating Osasuna, with 17% for Osasuna and 24% for a draw. Valencia are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Osasuna and Valencia come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Osasuna have won 1 of their last 5, drawing 1 (D-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
Valencia have won 1 of their last 5, drawing 2 (L-W-L-D-D, most recent first).
The teams have met 16 times since 2017: Osasuna 5, Valencia 7, 4 drawn. The last meeting, on Mar 1, 2026, finished Osasuna 0, Valencia 1.