Manchester City
Arsenal FC
Win Probability
Moneyline
MCI
+239
28.1% win prob
EV -2.4%
Pinnacle
Draw
Draw
+277
28% prob
EV +3.0%
Pinnacle
Moneyline
ARS
+110
43.8% win prob
EV -4.0%
bet365
Manchester City travels to Arsenal FC in a matchup where the simulation favours the hosts clearly. AccuScore projects 1.2 goals for City and 1.6 for Arsenal across 50,000 simulations, with a draw the second-most likely outcome. On games shaped like this one—where the favoured side carried a 40-50% win probability—that side won 44% of the time historically. The fixture turns on whether City can convert chances on the road; if they fall short, Arsenal's slight scoring advantage will likely hold. A City upset would require them to exceed their projected output or catch Arsenal in an off night.
| Book | MCI | EV | Draw | EV | ARS | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +239 | -2.4% | +277 | +3.0% | +105 | -5.1% |
| bet365 ↗ | +220 | -5.0% | +250 | -0.8% | +110 | -4.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3 | +126 | -5.4% | -154 | +0.8% |
| bet365 ↗ | 2.5 | -137 | -5.1% | +110 | +0.6% |
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EPL
AccuScore's simulation makes Arsenal FC 44% to win, Manchester City 28%, with a 28% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Arsenal FC the more likely winner at 44%, with a 28% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Arsenal FC a 44% chance of beating Manchester City, with 28% for Manchester City and 28% for a draw. Arsenal FC are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Manchester City and Arsenal FC come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Manchester City have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-W, most recent first).
Arsenal FC have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 17 times since 2017: Manchester City 12, Arsenal FC 2, 3 drawn. The last meeting, on Apr 18, 2026, finished Arsenal FC 1, Manchester City 2.