Monza
Roma
Win Probability
Moneyline
MON
+1200
17.0% win prob
EV +60.5%
bet365
Draw
Draw
+550
21% prob
EV +17.9%
bet365
Moneyline
ROM
-400
62.1% win prob
EV -11.2%
Pinnacle
Roma hosts Monza in Serie A with the simulation strongly favoring the home side. AccuScore ran 50,000 simulations and projects a Roma victory, with the model's lean decisive enough that when it has favored a side this emphatically in past games, that side won 61% of the time. The matchup turns on whether Monza can generate enough attacking threat on the road; Roma's quality should prevail in most outcomes, but an upset requires Monza to exceed their projected offensive output significantly.
| Book | MON | EV | Draw | EV | ROM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +875 | +32.9% | +538 | +16.7% | -400 | -11.2% |
| bet365 ↗ | +1200 | +60.5% | +550 | +17.9% | -556 | -13.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3.5 | +109 | -0.7% | -135 | -4.0% |
| bet365 ↗ | 3.5 | +100 | -2.8% | -125 | -2.5% |
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Serie A
AccuScore's simulation makes Roma 62% to win, Monza 17%, with a 21% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Roma the more likely winner at 62%, with a 21% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Roma a 62% chance of beating Monza, with 17% for Monza and 21% for a draw. Roma are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Monza and Roma come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Monza have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-W, most recent first).
Roma have won 4 of their last 5, drawing 1 (W-W-W-D-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 6 times since 2022: Monza 0, Roma 4, 2 drawn. The last meeting, on Feb 24, 2025, finished Monza 0, Roma 4.