Edmonton Oilers
9-2
New York Rangers
7-6
Win Probability
The Edmonton Oilers travel to Madison Square Garden as clear favourites over the New York Rangers. Connor McDavid projects as a near-lock to record a point at 85%, while Leon Draisaitl sits at 72%—a pair of advantages the Rangers' top options, Alexis Lafreniere at 58% and Mika Zibanejad at 52%, cannot match. The simulation hinges on Edmonton's depth edge: their fourth-line contributor Ryan Nugent-Hopkins reaches 52% while New York's comparable forward Gabe Perreault manages only 31%. On games shaped this way—a visiting team favoured by a clear margin—AccuScore's model has won 59% of the time across over a thousand graded matchups. For the Rangers to pull the upset, they would need their middle six to outperform their projections and contain Edmonton's elite talent simultaneously.
| Book | NYR | EV | EDM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -116 | -14.7% | -103 | +11.2% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -114 | -14.4% | -101 | +11.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | 6.5 | -129 | +3.3% | -125 | -14.1% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Edmonton Oilers 62% to beat New York Rangers (38%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Edmonton Oilers the more likely winner at 62%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives New York Rangers a 38% chance of beating Edmonton Oilers, against 62% for Edmonton Oilers. New York Rangers are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Edmonton Oilers (8-3 so far) project to finish 51.5–30.4 and make the playoffs in 99% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
New York Rangers (7-6 so far) project to finish 44.0–38.9 and make the playoffs in 71% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Edmonton Oilers | 51.5–30.4 | 68% | 99% |
| New York Rangers | 44.0–38.9 | 1% | 71% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NHL team's projection →
How Edmonton Oilers and New York Rangers come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Edmonton Oilers have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-W, most recent first).
New York Rangers have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 23 times since 2011: Edmonton Oilers 13, New York Rangers 10. The last meeting, on Oct 30, 2025, finished New York Rangers 4, Edmonton Oilers 3.
Edmonton Oilers are 353-257 as favourite and 230-323 as underdog, and 280-316 on the road (47% of 596 games, 2011–2026).
New York Rangers are 407-259 as favourite and 213-276 as underdog, and 333-262 at home (56% of 595 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | EDM | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 353-257 | 407-259 |
| As underdog | 230-323 | 213-276 |
| At home | 312-277 | 333-262 |
| On the road | 280-316 | 301-290 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →