Calgary Flames
5-7
San Jose Sharks
7-6
Win Probability
The simulation favours San Jose Sharks hosting Calgary Flames, though only slightly. Macklin Celebrini projects as the game's most dangerous offensive threat at 58% to record more than 0.5 points, while Joel Farabee sits at 45% for the visiting Flames. The matchup hinges on whether Calgary's secondary scorers—Matt Coronato at 44%—can generate enough secondary production to keep pace. AccuScore's record on home-favoured games shaped like this one stands at 49% across 2456 graded contests. San Jose would need to suppress Calgary's depth scoring to pull away, while the Flames require contributions beyond their top offensive weapons to steal this one on the road.
| Book | SAN | EV | CAL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -136 | -0.2% | +109 | -5.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -145 | -1.5% | +121 | -2.9% |
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NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes San Jose Sharks 57% to beat Calgary Flames (43%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes San Jose Sharks the more likely winner at 57%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives San Jose Sharks a 57% chance of beating Calgary Flames, against 43% for Calgary Flames. San Jose Sharks are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Calgary Flames (5-7 so far) project to finish 32.3–51.5 and make the playoffs in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
San Jose Sharks (6-6 so far) project to finish 38.2–44.5 and make the playoffs in 17% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calgary Flames | 32.3–51.5 | 0% | 1% |
| San Jose Sharks | 38.2–44.5 | <1% | 17% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NHL team's projection →
How Calgary Flames and San Jose Sharks come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Calgary Flames have won 4 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
San Jose Sharks have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 52 times since 2012: Calgary Flames 29, San Jose Sharks 23. The last meeting, on Feb 26, 2026, finished Calgary Flames 4, San Jose Sharks 1.
Calgary Flames are 303-229 as favourite and 233-337 as underdog, and 243-316 on the road (43% of 559 games, 2011–2026).
San Jose Sharks are 277-225 as favourite and 228-401 as underdog, and 275-298 at home (48% of 573 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | CAL | SAN |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 303-229 | 277-225 |
| As underdog | 233-337 | 228-401 |
| At home | 303-261 | 275-298 |
| On the road | 243-316 | 237-338 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →