NHL • Wed, Nov 4, 00:00
When the Detroit Red Wings visit Tampa Bay Lightning, the simulation clearly favors the home side. The game likely turns on whether Detroit's depth can generate enough secondary scoring; Brandon Hagel carries a 59% projection. For the Red Wings to pull the upset, they would need multiple contributors beyond DeBrincat to break through.
See the model's win probabilities, projected and most-likely score, the positive-EV edge with its price, the record behind it, and the full write-up — for this game and every game.
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NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Tampa Bay Lightning 64% to beat Detroit Red Wings (37%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Tampa Bay Lightning the more likely winner at 64%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Tampa Bay Lightning a 64% chance of beating Detroit Red Wings, against 37% for Detroit Red Wings. Tampa Bay Lightning are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Detroit Red Wings (6-4 so far) project to finish 38.1–42.6 and make the playoffs in 26% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Tampa Bay Lightning (8-3 so far) project to finish 50.0–32.8 and make the playoffs in 97% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Red Wings | 38.1–42.6 | 1% | 26% |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 50.0–32.8 | 49% | 97% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NHL team's projection →
How Detroit Red Wings and Tampa Bay Lightning come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Detroit Red Wings have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-W-L-W, most recent first).
Tampa Bay Lightning have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 63 times since 2011: Detroit Red Wings 22, Tampa Bay Lightning 41. The last meeting, on Apr 13, 2026, finished Detroit Red Wings 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4.
Detroit Red Wings are 207-172 as favourite and 264-440 as underdog, and 214-336 on the road (39% of 550 games, 2011–2026).
Tampa Bay Lightning are 575-346 as favourite and 133-163 as underdog, and 407-216 at home (65% of 623 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | DET | TB |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 207-172 | 575-346 |
| As underdog | 264-440 | 133-163 |
| At home | 269-284 | 407-216 |
| On the road | 214-336 | 317-300 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →