Vegas Golden Knights
9-5
Pittsburgh Penguins
5-7
Win Probability
The Vegas Golden Knights travel to Pittsburgh to face the Penguins in a matchup where the simulation clearly favors the visitors. Mitch Marner carries a 64% chance of recording more than 0.5 points, while Jack Eichel sits at 60%—both well above the Penguins' best option in Erik Karlsson, who projects at 54%. The game hinges on whether Pittsburgh's top-line contributors, particularly Sidney Crosby at just 37%, can generate enough offensive support; the simulation suggests they will struggle to do so. On similar win-probability shapes across eight other games, the favored side won five times. For the Penguins to upset this projection, they would need secondary scoring to emerge and limit the Knights' ability to convert chances.
| Book | PIT | EV | VGK | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -126 | -16.3% | -103 | +11.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -105 | -13.3% | -109 | +9.8% |
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NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Vegas Golden Knights 62% to beat Pittsburgh Penguins (38%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Vegas Golden Knights the more likely winner at 62%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Pittsburgh Penguins a 38% chance of beating Vegas Golden Knights, against 62% for Vegas Golden Knights. Pittsburgh Penguins are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Vegas Golden Knights (9-4 so far) project to finish 47.9–34.9 and make the playoffs in 93% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Pittsburgh Penguins (5-6 so far) project to finish 39.4–42.4 and make the playoffs in 32% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vegas Golden Knights | 47.9–34.9 | 24% | 93% |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 39.4–42.4 | <1% | 32% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NHL team's projection →
How Vegas Golden Knights and Pittsburgh Penguins come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Vegas Golden Knights have won 1 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-L, most recent first).
Pittsburgh Penguins have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-W-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 17 times since 2017: Vegas Golden Knights 8, Pittsburgh Penguins 9. The last meeting, on Oct 17, 2026, finished Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Vegas Golden Knights 6.
Vegas Golden Knights are 372-228 as favourite and 107-119 as underdog, and 220-197 on the road (53% of 417 games, 2017–2026).
Pittsburgh Penguins are 461-308 as favourite and 164-219 as underdog, and 365-227 at home (62% of 592 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | VGK | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 372-228 | 461-308 |
| As underdog | 107-119 | 164-219 |
| At home | 267-159 | 365-227 |
| On the road | 220-197 | 278-312 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →