Dallas Stars
8-5
Washington Capitals
8-4
Win Probability
This matchup between the Dallas Stars and Washington Capitals playing at home shapes as a coin-flip, with the simulation barely favouring the hosts. Tyler Seguin projects to 44% chance of more than zero points, while Tom Wilson sits at 34%, giving Dallas an edge in secondary scoring that could prove decisive. The game hinges on whether either team's top scorers can break through: Mikko Rantanen has a 37% chance of exceeding one point, and Alex Tuch a 29% chance. Across eight similar games in AccuScore's record, the model's side won half of them. For Washington to come in, it would need the Stars' depth to underperform that projection.
| Book | WAS | EV | DAL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -121 | -4.1% | -107 | -1.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -114 | -2.8% | -105 | -1.5% |
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Washington Capitals 50% to beat Dallas Stars (50%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Washington Capitals the more likely winner at 50%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Washington Capitals a 50% chance of beating Dallas Stars, against 50% for Dallas Stars. Washington Capitals are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Dallas Stars (7-5 so far) project to finish 45.7–37.1 and make the playoffs in 84% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Washington Capitals (8-4 so far) project to finish 44.0–39.9 and make the playoffs in 66% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Stars | 45.7–37.1 | 7% | 84% |
| Washington Capitals | 44.0–39.9 | 1% | 66% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NHL team's projection →
How Dallas Stars and Washington Capitals come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Dallas Stars have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-W, most recent first).
Washington Capitals have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-W-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 23 times since 2011: Dallas Stars 17, Washington Capitals 6. The last meeting, on Jan 7, 2026, finished Dallas Stars 4, Washington Capitals 1.
Dallas Stars are 424-289 as favourite and 206-255 as underdog, and 303-298 on the road (50% of 601 games, 2011–2026).
Washington Capitals are 458-285 as favourite and 196-232 as underdog, and 357-243 at home (60% of 600 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | DAL | WAS |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 424-289 | 458-285 |
| As underdog | 206-255 | 196-232 |
| At home | 346-257 | 357-243 |
| On the road | 303-298 | 314-284 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →