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← Today's Edges
NHL•Thu, Nov 5 • 12:30 AMSilver Edge
OTT

Ottawa Senators

9-5

VS
BUF

Buffalo Sabres

7-4

Win Probability

Moneyline

OTT

-105

43.5% win prob

EV -7.5%

Polymarket

Moneyline

BUF

-128

56.5% win prob

EV +0.3%

Polymarket

Analysis

The Buffalo Sabres host the Ottawa Senators in a tight matchup where the simulation leans slightly toward the home side. Tage Thompson projects as the most likely point producer at 62%, while Tim Stutzle sits at 57%—a narrow gap that mirrors the overall closeness of the contest. The game hinges on whether Ottawa's offence can generate enough scoring; the simulation expects just over 3 goals per side, a low-scoring affair that favours neither team decisively. AccuScore's historical record on similarly shaped games sits at 49% over more than 2,400 instances. A higher-scoring affair would pull the upset closer.

Probability Explorer— drag to explore lines

Puck Line (-1.5/+1.5)OTT -1.5
70-7
OTT Cover
33.0%
no odds at this line
BUF Cover
67.0%
no odds at this line
Total (Over/Under)O/U 6.5
0.57.2514
Over Cover
51.3%
no odds at this line
Under Cover
48.7%
no odds at this line

Player Props

BUF OTT
Sort:

Odds Comparison

Moneyline

BookBUFEVOTTEV
Kalshi ↗-136-1.0%-126-11.0%
Polymarket ↗-128+0.3%-105-7.5%

Where to Bet

silver
BUF ML+0.3% EV

Win probability: 56.5%

Polymarket
-128Bet →
Kalshi
-136Bet →

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NHL

Ottawa Senators vs Buffalo Sabres Prediction, Odds & Live Score

Wed, Nov 4, 2026, 7:30 PM ET

AccuScore's simulation makes Buffalo Sabres 56% to beat Ottawa Senators (44%).

Projection updated Nov 1, 11:16 AM ET

Who will win Ottawa Senators vs Buffalo Sabres?

AccuScore's simulation makes Buffalo Sabres the more likely winner at 56%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.

Will Buffalo Sabres beat Ottawa Senators?

AccuScore's simulation gives Buffalo Sabres a 56% chance of beating Ottawa Senators, against 44% for Ottawa Senators. Buffalo Sabres are at home and favoured on these numbers.

Every Ottawa Senators vs Buffalo Sabres meeting →Ottawa Senators predictions & record →Buffalo Sabres predictions & record →

Season outlook

Ottawa Senators (7-5 so far) project to finish 41.1–41.5 and make the playoffs in 44% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.

Buffalo Sabres (5-4 so far) project to finish 40.4–40.4 and make the playoffs in 45% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.

TeamProjected recordDivision titlePlayoffs
Ottawa Senators41.1–41.52%44%
Buffalo Sabres40.4–40.42%45%

From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NHL team's projection →

Form, head-to-head and betting trends

How Ottawa Senators and Buffalo Sabres come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.

Recent form

Ottawa SenatorsWLLWL
  • Oct 31at San Jose SharksW 5–1
  • Oct 29at Los Angeles KingsL 5–6
  • Oct 27at Vegas Golden KnightsL 1–4
  • Oct 24vs New York RangersW 7–4
  • Oct 22vs San Jose SharksL 2–6

Ottawa Senators have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-L, most recent first).

Buffalo SabresWWWLL
  • Oct 31at Los Angeles KingsW 3–2
  • Oct 29at Anaheim DucksW 7–6
  • Oct 27at San Jose SharksW 2–0
  • Oct 24at Washington CapitalsL 3–4
  • Oct 21vs Philadelphia FlyersL 1–3

Buffalo Sabres have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-W-L-L, most recent first).

Head-to-head

The teams have met 53 times since 2011: Ottawa Senators 26, Buffalo Sabres 27. The last meeting, on Apr 2, 2026, finished Buffalo Sabres 1, Ottawa Senators 4.

  • Apr 2, 2026BUF 1 – 4 OTT
  • Dec 23, 2025BUF 3 – 2 OTT
  • Oct 15, 2025OTT 4 – 8 BUF
  • Apr 1, 2025BUF 5 – 2 OTT
  • Mar 25, 2025OTT 2 – 3 BUF
Every Ottawa Senators vs Buffalo Sabres meeting →

Betting trends

Ottawa Senators are 205-151 as favourite and 309-451 as underdog, and 228-336 on the road (40% of 564 games, 2011–2026).

Buffalo Sabres are 151-115 as favourite and 302-504 as underdog, and 249-299 at home (45% of 548 games, 2011–2026).

RecordOTTBUF
As favourite205-151151-115
As underdog309-451302-504
At home291-273249-299
On the road228-336215-334

Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →