Vegas Golden Knights
9-5
Detroit Red Wings
7-5
Win Probability
The Vegas Golden Knights visit Detroit to face the Red Wings in a tight matchup that the simulation leans slightly toward the home side. Jack Eichel projects at 60% to record more than 0.5 points, while Lucas Raymond sits at 56%, making offensive production from both teams' top threats critical to the outcome. The game turns on whether either offence can break through and create separation—the projected totals suggest a low-scoring affair. AccuScore's model has converted 49% of calls favoring the home team in this win-probability range across 2,458 graded games. For Vegas to pull the upset on the road, it would need to sustain pressure through 60 minutes and convert on its chances.
| Book | DET | EV | VGK | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +114 | +6.4% | -148 | -10.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +116 | +6.9% | -134 | -8.7% |
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NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Detroit Red Wings 53% to beat Vegas Golden Knights (47%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Detroit Red Wings the more likely winner at 53%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Detroit Red Wings a 53% chance of beating Vegas Golden Knights, against 47% for Vegas Golden Knights. Detroit Red Wings are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Vegas Golden Knights (9-4 so far) project to finish 47.1–34.6 and make the playoffs in 92% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Detroit Red Wings (7-5 so far) project to finish 38.5–42.3 and make the playoffs in 27% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vegas Golden Knights | 47.1–34.6 | 20% | 92% |
| Detroit Red Wings | 38.5–42.3 | 1% | 27% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NHL team's projection →
How Vegas Golden Knights and Detroit Red Wings come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Vegas Golden Knights have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-W-L-L, most recent first).
Detroit Red Wings have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 15 times since 2017: Vegas Golden Knights 8, Detroit Red Wings 7. The last meeting, on Mar 4, 2026, finished Vegas Golden Knights 4, Detroit Red Wings 3.
Vegas Golden Knights are 372-229 as favourite and 107-119 as underdog, and 220-198 on the road (53% of 418 games, 2017–2026).
Detroit Red Wings are 207-172 as favourite and 265-440 as underdog, and 269-284 at home (49% of 553 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | VGK | DET |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 372-229 | 207-172 |
| As underdog | 107-119 | 265-440 |
| At home | 267-159 | 269-284 |
| On the road | 220-198 | 215-336 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →