Blackhawks vs Lightning Prediction (Nov 5): Lightning 74%

NHL • Fri, Nov 6, 00:00

CHI

Chicago Blackhawks4-10

Tampa Bay Lightning8-3

Preview

The Chicago Blackhawks visit Tampa Bay Lightning in a matchup where the home side's talent separation proves decisive. AccuScore's simulation decisively favours Tampa Bay, with Nikita Kucherov projected to exceed 0.5 points in 71% of outcomes and Brandon Hagel at 57%. Connor Bedard offers the visiting side's most reliable scoring threat at 52%, but the gap in offensive consistency tilts sharply toward the Lightning.

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Season outlook

Chicago Blackhawks (4-10 so far) project to finish 31.8–51.0 and make the playoffs in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.

Tampa Bay Lightning (8-3 so far) project to finish 49.5–32.4 and make the playoffs in 97% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.

Team	Projected record	Division title	Playoffs
Chicago Blackhawks	31.8–51.0	0%	1%
Tampa Bay Lightning	49.5–32.4	48%	97%

From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NHL team's projection →

AccuScore's simulation makes Tampa Bay Lightning 74% to beat Chicago Blackhawks (27%).

Projection updated Nov 3, 4:22 PM ET

Who will win Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning?

AccuScore's simulation makes Tampa Bay Lightning the more likely winner at 74%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.

Will Tampa Bay Lightning beat Chicago Blackhawks?

AccuScore's simulation gives Tampa Bay Lightning a 74% chance of beating Chicago Blackhawks, against 27% for Chicago Blackhawks. Tampa Bay Lightning are at home and favoured on these numbers.

Form, head-to-head and betting trends

How Chicago Blackhawks and Tampa Bay Lightning come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.

Recent form

Chicago BlackhawksLLLWL

Nov 2vs Colorado AvalancheL 2–5
Oct 31at Boston BruinsL 4–5
Oct 29at Detroit Red WingsL 1–4
Oct 27vs Los Angeles KingsW 2–1
Oct 25vs Florida PanthersL 2–3

Chicago Blackhawks have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-L, most recent first).

Tampa Bay LightningLWLLW

Oct 31at Nashville PredatorsL 4–5
Oct 29vs Winnipeg JetsW 6–4
Oct 24at Utah MammothL 4–5
Oct 23at Colorado AvalancheL 3–6
Oct 20at Vegas Golden KnightsW 6–2

Tampa Bay Lightning have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-W, most recent first).

Head-to-head

The teams have met 37 times since 2011: Chicago Blackhawks 11, Tampa Bay Lightning 26. The last meeting, on Jan 23, 2026, finished Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Chicago Blackhawks 1.

Jan 23, 2026TB 2 – 1 CHI
Oct 23, 2025CHI 3 – 2 TB
Jan 28, 2025CHI 4 – 1 TB
Jan 24, 2025TB 4 – 3 CHI
Nov 16, 2023TB 4 – 2 CHI

Every Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning meeting →

Betting trends

Chicago Blackhawks are 253-191 as favourite and 242-432 as underdog, and 233-335 on the road (41% of 568 games, 2011–2026).

Tampa Bay Lightning are 575-346 as favourite and 133-163 as underdog, and 407-216 at home (65% of 623 games, 2011–2026).

Record	CHI	TB
As favourite	253-191	575-346
As underdog	242-432	133-163
At home	272-294	407-216
On the road	233-335	317-300

Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →