Montreal Canadiens
10-3
Toronto Maple Leafs
8-7
Win Probability
The Montreal Canadiens travel to face the Toronto Maple Leafs in a matchup the simulation leans toward Montreal. Cole Caufield has a 62% chance of recording a point, while Auston Matthews sits at 67%—both teams have capable scoring threats ready to impose their will. The game turns on whether this stays tight or opens up; the simulation projects a closely contested affair, though it favors the over at 53%. AccuScore's model has won 54% of similar games historically, a modest but consistent lean. For Toronto to pull the upset at home, the Maple Leafs would need to tighten their defensive structure and limit Montreal's secondary scoring beyond their star forwards.
AccuScore's simulation of the first period, priced against the books' 1st-period lines.
Leads after the 1st
| Book | TOR | EV | MON | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -103 | -3.8% | -121 | -1.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +107 | -1.5% | -128 | -2.7% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Montreal Canadiens 53% to beat Toronto Maple Leafs (47%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Montreal Canadiens the more likely winner at 53%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Toronto Maple Leafs a 47% chance of beating Montreal Canadiens, against 53% for Montreal Canadiens. Toronto Maple Leafs are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Montreal Canadiens (9-3 so far) project to finish 45.4–28.4 and make the playoffs in 69% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Toronto Maple Leafs (8-7 so far) project to finish 39.5–35.5 and make the playoffs in 26% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montreal Canadiens | 45.4–28.4 | 18% | 69% |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 39.5–35.5 | 2% | 26% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NHL team's projection →
How Montreal Canadiens and Toronto Maple Leafs come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Montreal Canadiens have won 4 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
Toronto Maple Leafs have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 70 times since 2011: Montreal Canadiens 36, Toronto Maple Leafs 34. The last meeting, on Sep 29, 2026, finished Montreal Canadiens 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2.
Montreal Canadiens are 243-197 as favourite and 282-419 as underdog, and 253-327 on the road (44% of 580 games, 2011–2026).
Toronto Maple Leafs are 388-280 as favourite and 196-267 as underdog, and 320-261 at home (55% of 581 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | MON | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 243-197 | 388-280 |
| As underdog | 282-419 | 196-267 |
| At home | 283-299 | 320-261 |
| On the road | 253-327 | 277-300 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →