NHL
San Jose Sharks
7-9
Dallas Stars
9-5
Win Probability
Dallas Stars host San Jose Sharks in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Jason Robertson projects to record at least one point in 73% of outcomes and will likely see heavy usage, while Macklin Celebrini carries a 56% chance of registering a point for the visitors. The game hinges on Dallas's ability to convert on offensive chances; in 1,331 past games where AccuScore favored one side this strongly, that side won 71% of the time. San Jose would need Celebrini and Will Smith to both beat their individual projections while containing Robertson and Mikko Rantanen, who sits at 75% to record at least one point, to pull off the upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first period, priced against the books' 1st-period lines.
Leads after the 1st
| Book | DAL | EV | SAN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -306 | -1.9% | +240 | -3.2% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -284 | -1.0% | +245 | -2.6% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Dallas Stars 73% to beat San Jose Sharks (28%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Dallas Stars the more likely winner at 73%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Dallas Stars a 73% chance of beating San Jose Sharks, against 28% for San Jose Sharks. Dallas Stars are at home and favoured on these numbers.
San Jose Sharks (7-9 so far) project to finish 35.0–40.7 and make the playoffs in 13% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Dallas Stars (9-5 so far) project to finish 48.6–27.2 and make the playoffs in 87% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Sharks | 35.0–40.7 | 1% | 13% |
| Dallas Stars | 48.6–27.2 | 23% | 87% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NHL team's projection →
How San Jose Sharks and Dallas Stars come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
San Jose Sharks have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
Dallas Stars have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-W-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 41 times since 2011: San Jose Sharks 16, Dallas Stars 25. The last meeting, on Oct 5, 2026, finished San Jose Sharks 0, Dallas Stars 5.
San Jose Sharks are 277-226 as favourite and 228-403 as underdog, and 237-339 on the road (41% of 576 games, 2011–2026).
Dallas Stars are 423-290 as favourite and 208-255 as underdog, and 346-257 at home (57% of 603 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | SAN | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 277-226 | 423-290 |
| As underdog | 228-403 | 208-255 |
| At home | 275-300 | 346-257 |
| On the road | 237-339 | 304-299 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →