Tampa Bay Lightning
10-3
Minnesota Wild
11-3
Win Probability
The Tampa Bay Lightning travel to face the Minnesota Wild in a matchup the simulation barely separates—this is a coin-flip. Nikita Kucherov projects to have a 72% chance of recording at least one point, while Matt Boldy sits at 61% with 3.4 shots on goal. The game turns on whether either offence can sustain pressure; both teams' projected outputs sit within a tenth of a goal. On games shaped this way across the model's history, the favoured side won 54% of the time. For Minnesota to come out ahead, it would need to hold Tampa Bay below their projection while Kirill Kaprizov and Boldy both find the scoresheet.
AccuScore's simulation of the first period, priced against the books' 1st-period lines.
Leads after the 1st
| Book | MIN | EV | TB | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -103 | -2.7% | -121 | -2.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +103 | -1.3% | -119 | -2.2% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Tampa Bay Lightning 52% to beat Minnesota Wild (48%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Tampa Bay Lightning the more likely winner at 52%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Minnesota Wild a 48% chance of beating Tampa Bay Lightning, against 52% for Tampa Bay Lightning. Minnesota Wild are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Tampa Bay Lightning (9-3 so far) project to finish 47.8–27.1 and make the playoffs in 80% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Minnesota Wild (11-3 so far) project to finish 49.0–25.1 and make the playoffs in 92% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 47.8–27.1 | 30% | 80% |
| Minnesota Wild | 49.0–25.1 | 32% | 92% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NHL team's projection →
How Tampa Bay Lightning and Minnesota Wild come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Tampa Bay Lightning have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
Minnesota Wild have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 24 times since 2011: Tampa Bay Lightning 10, Minnesota Wild 14. The last meeting, on Oct 8, 2026, finished Minnesota Wild 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 3.
Tampa Bay Lightning are 577-346 as favourite and 134-163 as underdog, and 317-300 on the road (51% of 617 games, 2011–2026).
Minnesota Wild are 387-248 as favourite and 209-284 as underdog, and 324-248 at home (57% of 572 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | TB | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 577-346 | 387-248 |
| As underdog | 134-163 | 209-284 |
| At home | 409-216 | 324-248 |
| On the road | 317-300 | 285-297 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →