NHL
Pittsburgh Penguins
5-9
Los Angeles Kings
5-7
Win Probability
The Pittsburgh Penguins visit the Los Angeles Kings in a matchup the simulation judges as a coin-flip. Artemi Panarin carries the heaviest offensive load, with a 67% chance of recording a point, while Sidney Crosby sits at 61%. The game turns on volume: Los Angeles Kings project to slightly outscore the Penguins, but the margin is negligible enough that this could go either way. On games shaped like this one—where the simulation barely favours the home side—AccuScore's model has won 54% of its graded matchups. For Pittsburgh to pull the upset, the Penguins would need their secondary scorers to outpace Los Angeles's depth advantage.
AccuScore's simulation of the first period, priced against the books' 1st-period lines.
Leads after the 1st
| Book | LOS | EV | PIT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -126 | -4.0% | +101 | -1.1% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -119 | -2.8% | +103 | -0.6% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Los Angeles Kings 51% to beat Pittsburgh Penguins (49%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Los Angeles Kings the more likely winner at 51%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Los Angeles Kings a 51% chance of beating Pittsburgh Penguins, against 49% for Pittsburgh Penguins. Los Angeles Kings are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Pittsburgh Penguins (5-8 so far) project to finish 39.9–35.0 and make the playoffs in 31% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Los Angeles Kings (5-7 so far) project to finish 39.7–34.6 and make the playoffs in 45% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 39.9–35.0 | 2% | 31% |
| Los Angeles Kings | 39.7–34.6 | 6% | 45% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NHL team's projection →
How Pittsburgh Penguins and Los Angeles Kings come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Pittsburgh Penguins have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-W, most recent first).
Los Angeles Kings have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-W-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 23 times since 2011: Pittsburgh Penguins 12, Los Angeles Kings 11. The last meeting, on Nov 9, 2025, finished Los Angeles Kings 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 2.
Pittsburgh Penguins are 462-309 as favourite and 163-219 as underdog, and 278-312 on the road (47% of 590 games, 2011–2026).
Los Angeles Kings are 342-268 as favourite and 212-292 as underdog, and 307-260 at home (54% of 567 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | PIT | LOS |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 462-309 | 342-268 |
| As underdog | 163-219 | 212-292 |
| At home | 365-229 | 307-260 |
| On the road | 278-312 | 258-315 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →