MLS • Fri, Nov 20, 00:30
Both squads figure to find the net, though, with the most likely outcome a 1–1 draw in a tenth of simulations. On games where the model has favoured one side this strongly, that side won 52% of the time across nearly 11,000 graded matches. Orlando City would need to tighten defensively and capitalize on set pieces to pull off an upset at home.
See the model's win probabilities, projected and most-likely score, the positive-EV edge with its price, the record behind it, and the full write-up — for this game and every game.
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MLS
AccuScore's simulation makes Cincinnati 53% to win, Orlando City 21%, with a 26% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Cincinnati the more likely winner at 53%, with a 26% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Orlando City a 21% chance of beating Cincinnati, with 53% for Cincinnati and 26% for a draw. Orlando City are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How Cincinnati and Orlando City come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Cincinnati have won 3 of their last 5, drawing 1 (L-W-D-W-W, most recent first).
Orlando City have won 2 of their last 5, drawing 2 (W-L-D-D-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 14 times since 2019: Cincinnati 4, Orlando City 5, 5 drawn. The last meeting, on Aug 15, 2026, finished Cincinnati 1, Orlando City 1.