Portland Timbers
Dallas
Win Probability
Moneyline
POR
-115
9.3% win prob
EV -41.3%
Fanatics
Draw
Draw
+310
18% prob
EV -13.9%
FanDuel
Moneyline
DAL
+250
73.1% win prob
EV +77.9%
FanDuel
Dallas hosts Portland Timbers in a matchup the simulation favors decisively. The model projects a low-scoring affair built on Portland's inability to generate chances on the road; across 50,000 simulations, the most common outcome appeared in 13% of them. In games where AccuScore has leaned this heavily toward the home side, that side won 68% of the time historically. For Portland Timbers to upset Dallas, they would need to breach a defense the numbers expect to dominate set pieces and transition play—a tall order for a visiting side projected to manage just 0.7 goals.
| Book | POR | EV | Draw | EV | DAL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -120 | -41.5% | +310 | -13.9% | +250 | +77.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -115 | -41.3% | +300 | -14.8% | +240 | +74.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3.5 | +101 | -13.4% | -120 | +8.3% |
| Betfair ↗ | 2.5 | -278 | -10.0% | +188 | +9.3% |
| Betano ↗ | 3.5 | +102 | -13.2% | -122 | +7.9% |
| bet365 ↗ | 3.5 | -110 | -15.3% | -125 | +7.2% |
| William Hill ↗ | 2.5 | -250 | -8.8% | +180 | +7.7% |
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MLS
AccuScore's simulation makes Dallas 73% to win, Portland Timbers 9%, with a 18% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Dallas the more likely winner at 73%, with a 18% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Dallas a 73% chance of beating Portland Timbers, with 9% for Portland Timbers and 18% for a draw. Dallas are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Portland Timbers and Dallas come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Portland Timbers have won 4 of their last 5, drawing 1 (W-W-W-W-D, most recent first).
Dallas have won 2 of their last 5, drawing 2 (W-D-L-W-D, most recent first).
The teams have met 19 times since 2017: Portland Timbers 5, Dallas 6, 8 drawn. The last meeting, on Sep 12, 2026, finished Portland Timbers 1, Dallas 2.