Philadelphia Union
New England
Win Probability
Moneyline
PHI
+220
29.3% win prob
EV -3.1%
Fanatics
Draw
Draw
+280
24% prob
EV -4.4%
FanDuel
Moneyline
NE
+105
46.7% win prob
EV -2.1%
Fanatics
When Philadelphia Union visit New England, the simulation favours the Revs with a decisive lean. Over 50,000 simulations, New England projects to 2.0 goals while Philadelphia Union reaches 1.4, with the most likely outcome a 2–1 home win. The game turns on whether Philadelphia Union can solve New England's attack—in games where the model has favoured one side this strongly, that side won 44% of the time across 14,411 comparable matchups. For Philadelphia Union to pull off the upset, they would need to limit New England to a single goal while converting chances at a higher rate than the projection suggests.
| Book | PHI | EV | Draw | EV | NE | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | +220 | -3.1% | +280 | -4.4% | +105 | -2.1% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +220 | -3.1% | +250 | -8.0% | +105 | -2.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3 | -120 | +3.1% | +102 | -6.6% |
| Betfair ↗ | 2.5 | -222 | -0.9% | +155 | -8.9% |
| Betano ↗ | 3 | -143 | -0.0% | +122 | -3.4% |
| bet365 ↗ | 2.5 | -227 | -1.2% | +170 | -6.4% |
| William Hill ↗ | 2.5 | -227 | -1.2% | +150 | -9.7% |
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MLS
AccuScore's simulation makes New England 47% to win, Philadelphia Union 29%, with a 24% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes New England the more likely winner at 47%, with a 24% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives New England a 47% chance of beating Philadelphia Union, with 29% for Philadelphia Union and 24% for a draw. New England are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Philadelphia Union and New England come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Philadelphia Union have won 1 of their last 5, drawing 2 (W-L-D-L-D, most recent first).
New England have won 3 of their last 5 (L-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 25 times since 2017: Philadelphia Union 13, New England 7, 5 drawn. The last meeting, on Oct 24, 2026, finished New England 2, Philadelphia Union 1.