New York Islanders
7-6-3
San Jose Sharks
7-11-1
Win Probability
The New York Islanders travel to face the San Jose Sharks in a matchup where the simulation slightly favours the visitors. Macklin Celebrini leads the Sharks with a 71% chance of registering at least one point, while Bo Horvat projects at 63% for New York. The game hinges on secondary scoring: Simon Holmstrom sits at 52% to contribute a point for the Islanders, and Will Smith at 57% for San Jose, with both teams capable of breaking through around three goals. On games shaped like this one, AccuScore's model has won 54% of its picks across nearly 11,000 graded matchups. San Jose would need to lean heavily on depth contributions beyond its top two names to pull off the upset at home.
AccuScore's simulation of the first period, priced against the books' 1st-period lines.
Leads after the 1st
1P NYI ML
NYI -121
-0.0% EV
37.3% leads · push 31.7%
Caesars ↗
1P SAN ML
SAN +105
-2.4% EV
30.9% leads · push 31.7%
BetMGM ↗
1P 3-way NYI
NYI +170
+0.4% EV
37.3% leads
FanDuel ↗
1P 3-way tie
Tie +188
-4.3% EV
31.7% tied
betPARX ↗
1P 3-way SAN
SAN +210
-2.1% EV
30.9% leads
FanDuel ↗
2-way moneyline: a tied 1st period returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1P Spread
NYI -0.5 +166
-0.4% EV
37.3% covers
FanDuel ↗
1P Spread
SAN +0.5 -205
-3.4% EV
62.7% covers
Caesars ↗
1P Total
O 1.5 -132
-1.8% EV
54.8% over
FanDuel ↗
1P Total
U 1.5 +116
-1.2% EV
45.2% under
FanDuel ↗
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | SAN | EV | NYI | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +1.5 | -218 | -2.7% | +180 | -0.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +1.5 | -225 | -3.2% | +180 | -0.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +1.5 | -200 | -1.4% | +165 | -3.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | +1.5 | -225 | -3.2% | +180 | -0.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +1.5 | -215 | -2.5% | +170 | -2.5% |
| Book | SAN | EV | NYI | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +114 | -3.2% | -135 | -1.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +112 | -3.7% | -134 | -0.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +115 | -3.0% | -140 | -1.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | +118 | -2.4% | -138 | -1.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +115 | -3.0% | -135 | -1.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 6.5 | -102 | -2.7% | -118 | -1.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 6.5 | -102 | -2.7% | -120 | -2.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 6.5 | -102 | -2.7% | -118 | -1.8% |
| Caesars ↗ | 6.5 | +101 | -2.0% | -124 | -2.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 6.5 | +100 | -2.2% | -120 | -2.1% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes New York Islanders 56% to beat San Jose Sharks (44%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes New York Islanders the more likely winner at 56%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives San Jose Sharks a 44% chance of beating New York Islanders, against 56% for New York Islanders. San Jose Sharks are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
New York Islanders (7-6 so far) project to finish 39.9–33.5 and make the playoffs in 34% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
San Jose Sharks (7-11 so far) project to finish 34.3–41.7 and make the playoffs in 9% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Islanders | 39.9–33.5 | 2% | 34% |
| San Jose Sharks | 34.3–41.7 | <1% | 9% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NHL team's projection →
How New York Islanders and San Jose Sharks come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
New York Islanders have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-W, most recent first).
San Jose Sharks have won 0 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 23 times since 2011: New York Islanders 14, San Jose Sharks 9. The last meeting, on Mar 7, 2026, finished New York Islanders 2, San Jose Sharks 1.
New York Islanders are 309-227 as favourite and 259-341 as underdog, and 266-315 on the road (46% of 581 games, 2011–2026).
San Jose Sharks are 277-226 as favourite and 228-405 as underdog, and 275-300 at home (48% of 575 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | NYI | SAN |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 309-227 | 277-226 |
| As underdog | 259-341 | 228-405 |
| At home | 315-267 | 275-300 |
| On the road | 266-315 | 237-341 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →