Minnesota Wild
12-3-4
Montreal Canadiens
11-3-3
Win Probability
The Minnesota Wild travel to face the Montreal Canadiens in a matchup the simulation leans toward the home side on, barely — this is effectively a coin flip. Kirill Kaprizov projects a 65% chance of at least one point for Minnesota, while Nick Suzuki carries a 66% probability for Montreal, suggesting both offences will test their respective defences. The game hinges on whether combined scoring stays under the market total: AccuScore's models favoured the under in similar spots 43% of the time across 76 graded games. For Minnesota to pull the upset, the Wild would need to limit Montreal's chances despite facing a team playing at home.
AccuScore's simulation of the first period, priced against the books' 1st-period lines.
Leads after the 1st
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | MON | EV | MIN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -103 | +0.2% | -126 | -6.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -101 | +0.6% | -114 | -3.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | 6.5 | -102 | -1.5% | -135 | -5.6% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Montreal Canadiens 51% to beat Minnesota Wild (49%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Montreal Canadiens the more likely winner at 51%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Montreal Canadiens a 51% chance of beating Minnesota Wild, against 49% for Minnesota Wild. Montreal Canadiens are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Minnesota Wild (12-3 so far) project to finish 49.0–24.4 and make the playoffs in 93% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Montreal Canadiens (11-3 so far) project to finish 46.8–27.3 and make the playoffs in 76% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Wild | 49.0–24.4 | 34% | 93% |
| Montreal Canadiens | 46.8–27.3 | 20% | 76% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NHL team's projection →
How Minnesota Wild and Montreal Canadiens come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Minnesota Wild have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-L, most recent first).
Montreal Canadiens have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 23 times since 2012: Minnesota Wild 19, Montreal Canadiens 4. The last meeting, on Feb 2, 2026, finished Montreal Canadiens 3, Minnesota Wild 4.
Minnesota Wild are 388-248 as favourite and 209-285 as underdog, and 285-297 on the road (49% of 582 games, 2011–2026).
Montreal Canadiens are 244-197 as favourite and 282-419 as underdog, and 283-299 at home (49% of 582 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | MIN | MON |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 388-248 | 244-197 |
| As underdog | 209-285 | 282-419 |
| At home | 325-249 | 283-299 |
| On the road | 285-297 | 254-327 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →