Washington Capitals
9-6-0
Ottawa Senators
11-6-1
Win Probability
The Washington Capitals travel to face the Ottawa Senators in a matchup the simulation leans slightly toward the home side to win. Tim Stutzle projects as Ottawa's most threatening forward with a 62% chance of recording at least one point, while Drake Batherson carries a 58% probability of doing the same. For Washington, Dylan Strome and PierreLuc Dubois each sit at around 50% to register a point, leaving the Capitals' offensive production as the game's pivotal question. AccuScore's record on close over-under calls has favored the under at 43% over similar games, though the model won 54% of contests shaped like this one historically. The Senators will need to suppress Washington's secondary scoring threats to protect their slight advantage.
AccuScore's simulation of the first period, priced against the books' 1st-period lines.
Leads after the 1st
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | OTT | EV | WAS | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -126 | -2.7% | +101 | -2.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -123 | -2.2% | +107 | -1.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | 5.5 | -160 | -2.1% | +106 | -7.7% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Ottawa Senators 53% to beat Washington Capitals (47%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Ottawa Senators the more likely winner at 53%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Ottawa Senators a 53% chance of beating Washington Capitals, against 47% for Washington Capitals. Ottawa Senators are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Washington Capitals (9-6 so far) project to finish 45.5–31.4 and make the playoffs in 62% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Ottawa Senators (11-6 so far) project to finish 45.3–30.7 and make the playoffs in 62% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Capitals | 45.5–31.4 | 7% | 62% |
| Ottawa Senators | 45.3–30.7 | 11% | 62% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NHL team's projection →
How Washington Capitals and Ottawa Senators come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Washington Capitals have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-W, most recent first).
Ottawa Senators have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 38 times since 2011: Washington Capitals 25, Ottawa Senators 13. The last meeting, on Mar 18, 2026, finished Ottawa Senators 1, Washington Capitals 4.
Washington Capitals are 460-286 as favourite and 196-233 as underdog, and 314-284 on the road (53% of 598 games, 2011–2026).
Ottawa Senators are 205-152 as favourite and 312-451 as underdog, and 292-273 at home (52% of 565 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | WAS | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 460-286 | 205-152 |
| As underdog | 196-233 | 312-451 |
| At home | 358-245 | 292-273 |
| On the road | 314-284 | 229-337 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →