Colorado Avalanche
10-6-2
Toronto Maple Leafs
8-9-2
Win Probability
Colorado Avalanche travel to Toronto Maple Leafs in a matchup where the simulation favours the visitors. Nathan MacKinnon projects a 73% chance of registering at least one point, while Martin Necas of Colorado has a 67% chance; for Toronto, Auston Matthews carries a 64% probability of getting on the scoresheet. The game hinges on whether either team can sustain offensive pressure—the simulation leans Colorado but sees a relatively close final score. On games shaped like this one, AccuScore's model won 54% of the time across nearly 11,000 graded matchups. Toronto would need to limit Colorado's shot generation and capitalize on its own chances, where William Nylander's 66% point probability suggests the home side has the offensive talent to make this competitive.
AccuScore's simulation of the first period, priced against the books' 1st-period lines.
Leads after the 1st
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | TOR | EV | COL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +140 | -2.0% | -175 | -2.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +137 | -2.6% | -158 | -1.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | 5.5 | -197 | -2.1% | +147 | -5.0% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Colorado Avalanche 60% to beat Toronto Maple Leafs (40%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Colorado Avalanche the more likely winner at 60%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Toronto Maple Leafs a 40% chance of beating Colorado Avalanche, against 60% for Colorado Avalanche. Toronto Maple Leafs are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Colorado Avalanche (10-6 so far) project to finish 49.5–26.2 and make the playoffs in 92% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Toronto Maple Leafs (8-8 so far) project to finish 38.7–36.4 and make the playoffs in 20% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Avalanche | 49.5–26.2 | 29% | 92% |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 38.7–36.4 | 1% | 20% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NHL team's projection →
How Colorado Avalanche and Toronto Maple Leafs come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Colorado Avalanche have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-W, most recent first).
Toronto Maple Leafs have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-W-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 24 times since 2011: Colorado Avalanche 12, Toronto Maple Leafs 12. The last meeting, on Oct 10, 2026, finished Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Colorado Avalanche 3.
Colorado Avalanche are 445-257 as favourite and 190-272 as underdog, and 295-297 on the road (50% of 592 games, 2011–2026).
Toronto Maple Leafs are 388-280 as favourite and 196-268 as underdog, and 320-262 at home (55% of 582 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | COL | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 445-257 | 388-280 |
| As underdog | 190-272 | 196-268 |
| At home | 349-244 | 320-262 |
| On the road | 295-297 | 277-300 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →