Tampa Bay Lightning
11-4-2
Buffalo Sabres
8-6-3
Win Probability
Tampa Bay Lightning travel to face the Buffalo Sabres in a matchup where the simulation leans slightly toward the visitors. Nikita Kucherov projects a 75% chance of recording at least one point, while Tage Thompson of Buffalo carries a 61% chance; the Lightning's slight advantage hinges on whether they can capitalize on shot volume, with both Kucherov and Thompson expected to average 3.2 shots. On games shaped like this one, AccuScore's model won 54% of the time across nearly 11,000 graded contests. Buffalo would need to shut down Tampa Bay's scoring depth and convert their limited opportunities to pull off the upset at home.
AccuScore's simulation of the first period, priced against the books' 1st-period lines.
Leads after the 1st
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | BUF | EV | TB | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +105 | -3.7% | -131 | -1.7% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +111 | -2.3% | -128 | -1.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | 6.5 | -120 | -2.7% | -110 | -3.8% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Tampa Bay Lightning 55% to beat Buffalo Sabres (45%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Tampa Bay Lightning the more likely winner at 55%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Buffalo Sabres a 45% chance of beating Tampa Bay Lightning, against 55% for Tampa Bay Lightning. Buffalo Sabres are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Tampa Bay Lightning (11-4 so far) project to finish 48.1–27.1 and make the playoffs in 82% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Buffalo Sabres (8-6 so far) project to finish 42.0–32.0 and make the playoffs in 46% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 48.1–27.1 | 27% | 82% |
| Buffalo Sabres | 42.0–32.0 | 5% | 46% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NHL team's projection →
How Tampa Bay Lightning and Buffalo Sabres come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Tampa Bay Lightning have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-L, most recent first).
Buffalo Sabres have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 50 times since 2011: Tampa Bay Lightning 32, Buffalo Sabres 18. The last meeting, on Apr 6, 2026, finished Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Buffalo Sabres 4.
Tampa Bay Lightning are 578-347 as favourite and 134-163 as underdog, and 318-301 on the road (51% of 619 games, 2011–2026).
Buffalo Sabres are 152-117 as favourite and 302-504 as underdog, and 250-301 at home (45% of 551 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | TB | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 578-347 | 152-117 |
| As underdog | 134-163 | 302-504 |
| At home | 409-216 | 250-301 |
| On the road | 318-301 | 215-334 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →