Pittsburgh Penguins
6-10-2
San Jose Sharks
7-11-1
Win Probability
The Pittsburgh Penguins visit the San Jose Sharks in a matchup where the simulation leans toward the visitors. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin project to contribute for Pittsburgh, with Crosby at a 67% chance of recording a point, while San Jose's Macklin Celebrini carries a 71% probability of doing the same and leads all skaters in projected shots at 3.5. The game hinges on shot volume: Celebrini's volume and playmaking will determine whether the Sharks can keep pace with Pittsburgh's depth scoring. On similar win-probability shapes, AccuScore's favoured side has won 54% of the time. San Jose would need to limit Pittsburgh's secondary scoring and convert at a higher rate to pull off the upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first period, priced against the books' 1st-period lines.
Leads after the 1st
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | SAN | EV | PIT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +114 | -2.5% | -143 | -2.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +121 | -0.9% | -140 | -2.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | 6.5 | -152 | -2.0% | +110 | -5.8% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Pittsburgh Penguins 56% to beat San Jose Sharks (44%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Pittsburgh Penguins the more likely winner at 56%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives San Jose Sharks a 44% chance of beating Pittsburgh Penguins, against 56% for Pittsburgh Penguins. San Jose Sharks are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Pittsburgh Penguins (6-10 so far) project to finish 38.8–36.4 and make the playoffs in 22% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
San Jose Sharks (7-11 so far) project to finish 34.2–41.8 and make the playoffs in 9% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 38.8–36.4 | 1% | 22% |
| San Jose Sharks | 34.2–41.8 | <1% | 9% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NHL team's projection →
How Pittsburgh Penguins and San Jose Sharks come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Pittsburgh Penguins have won 1 of their last 5 (W-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
San Jose Sharks have won 1 of their last 5 (W-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 29 times since 2011: Pittsburgh Penguins 15, San Jose Sharks 14. The last meeting, on Dec 13, 2025, finished San Jose Sharks 6, Pittsburgh Penguins 5.
Pittsburgh Penguins are 462-310 as favourite and 164-219 as underdog, and 279-312 on the road (47% of 591 games, 2011–2026).
San Jose Sharks are 277-226 as favourite and 228-405 as underdog, and 275-300 at home (48% of 575 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | PIT | SAN |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 462-310 | 277-226 |
| As underdog | 164-219 | 228-405 |
| At home | 365-229 | 275-300 |
| On the road | 279-312 | 237-341 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →