Tampa Bay Lightning
11-4-2
Columbus Blue Jackets
7-8-0
Win Probability
When Tampa Bay Lightning visit Columbus Blue Jackets, the simulation leans slightly toward the visitors. Nikita Kucherov projects a 74% chance of at least one point, while Jake Guentzel reaches that mark at 62%, giving Tampa Bay multiple scoring threats. Columbus counters with Zach Werenski and Matthew Knies each at 51% to register a point. The game turns on whether Columbus can generate sustained offense; AccuScore's model has favored sides this lightly in similar matchups 54% of the time across nearly 11,000 graded games. For the Blue Jackets to prevail at home, they would need to overcome Tampa Bay's depth advantage and tighten their play in close moments.
AccuScore's simulation of the first period, priced against the books' 1st-period lines.
Leads after the 1st
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | CLS | EV | TB | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +118 | -1.6% | -143 | -2.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +116 | -2.0% | -134 | -1.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | 6.5 | -102 | -2.7% | -135 | -4.6% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Tampa Bay Lightning 56% to beat Columbus Blue Jackets (44%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Tampa Bay Lightning the more likely winner at 56%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Columbus Blue Jackets a 44% chance of beating Tampa Bay Lightning, against 56% for Tampa Bay Lightning. Columbus Blue Jackets are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Tampa Bay Lightning (11-4 so far) project to finish 48.1–27.1 and make the playoffs in 82% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Columbus Blue Jackets (7-8 so far) project to finish 40.5–35.9 and make the playoffs in 30% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 48.1–27.1 | 27% | 82% |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 40.5–35.9 | 2% | 30% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NHL team's projection →
How Tampa Bay Lightning and Columbus Blue Jackets come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Tampa Bay Lightning have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-L, most recent first).
Columbus Blue Jackets have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-W-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 50 times since 2011: Tampa Bay Lightning 32, Columbus Blue Jackets 18. The last meeting, on Mar 10, 2026, finished Columbus Blue Jackets 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 2.
Tampa Bay Lightning are 578-347 as favourite and 134-163 as underdog, and 318-301 on the road (51% of 619 games, 2011–2026).
Columbus Blue Jackets are 211-137 as favourite and 293-467 as underdog, and 286-274 at home (51% of 560 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | TB | CLS |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 578-347 | 211-137 |
| As underdog | 134-163 | 293-467 |
| At home | 409-216 | 286-274 |
| On the road | 318-301 | 223-335 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →