Colorado Avalanche
10-6-2
Ottawa Senators
11-6-1
Win Probability
Colorado Avalanche travel to Ottawa Senators in a matchup where the simulation leans slightly toward the visitors. Nathan MacKinnon projects a 71% chance of at least one point for Colorado, while Ottawa's Tim Stutzle sits at 61%. The game turns on whether either team can sustain offensive pressure: the projected combined score sits just at the total line, suggesting a close, low-scoring affair. On games shaped like this one, AccuScore's model has won 54% of the time historically. For Ottawa to pull the upset, the Senators would need their depth scoring to outpace Martin Necas and the Avalanche's secondary threats.
AccuScore's simulation of the first period, priced against the books' 1st-period lines.
Leads after the 1st
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | OTT | EV | COL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +105 | -5.9% | -126 | +1.1% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +107 | -5.5% | -123 | +1.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | 6.5 | -115 | -3.0% | -115 | -3.5% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Colorado Avalanche 57% to beat Ottawa Senators (43%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Colorado Avalanche the more likely winner at 57%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Ottawa Senators a 43% chance of beating Colorado Avalanche, against 57% for Colorado Avalanche. Ottawa Senators are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Colorado Avalanche (10-6 so far) project to finish 49.6–26.1 and make the playoffs in 92% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Ottawa Senators (11-6 so far) project to finish 45.3–30.6 and make the playoffs in 64% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Avalanche | 49.6–26.1 | 29% | 92% |
| Ottawa Senators | 45.3–30.6 | 11% | 64% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NHL team's projection →
How Colorado Avalanche and Ottawa Senators come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Colorado Avalanche have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
Ottawa Senators have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-W-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 23 times since 2011: Colorado Avalanche 14, Ottawa Senators 9. The last meeting, on Jan 28, 2026, finished Colorado Avalanche 2, Ottawa Senators 5.
Colorado Avalanche are 446-257 as favourite and 190-272 as underdog, and 296-297 on the road (50% of 593 games, 2011–2026).
Ottawa Senators are 205-153 as favourite and 312-451 as underdog, and 292-274 at home (52% of 566 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | COL | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 446-257 | 205-153 |
| As underdog | 190-272 | 312-451 |
| At home | 349-244 | 292-274 |
| On the road | 296-297 | 229-337 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →