Minnesota Wild
12-3-4
Toronto Maple Leafs
8-9-2
Win Probability
Minnesota Wild travel to Toronto Maple Leafs as clear favourites in this matchup. Kirill Kaprizov has a 69% chance of recording at least one point for the Wild, while Auston Matthews projects at 63% for Toronto. The simulation leans heavily toward Minnesota, and historically AccuScore's side has won 54% of games shaped this way. This contest turns on scoring volume: the model expects a relatively even offensive output, with nearly an even split on whether combined goals exceed the market total. For Toronto to pull off the upset, the Maple Leafs would need William Nylander and their supporting cast to outpace Minnesota's depth scoring.
AccuScore's simulation of the first period, priced against the books' 1st-period lines.
Leads after the 1st
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | TOR | EV | MIN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +134 | -1.1% | -167 | -3.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +131 | -1.7% | -151 | -1.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | 6.5 | -110 | -2.0% | -125 | -5.3% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Minnesota Wild 58% to beat Toronto Maple Leafs (42%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Minnesota Wild the more likely winner at 58%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Toronto Maple Leafs a 42% chance of beating Minnesota Wild, against 58% for Minnesota Wild. Toronto Maple Leafs are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Minnesota Wild (12-3 so far) project to finish 49.0–24.3 and make the playoffs in 93% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Toronto Maple Leafs (8-9 so far) project to finish 37.8–37.3 and make the playoffs in 17% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Wild | 49.0–24.3 | 34% | 93% |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 37.8–37.3 | 1% | 17% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NHL team's projection →
How Minnesota Wild and Toronto Maple Leafs come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Minnesota Wild have won 4 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
Toronto Maple Leafs have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 23 times since 2012: Minnesota Wild 12, Toronto Maple Leafs 11. The last meeting, on Mar 15, 2026, finished Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Minnesota Wild 2.
Minnesota Wild are 389-248 as favourite and 209-285 as underdog, and 286-297 on the road (49% of 583 games, 2011–2026).
Toronto Maple Leafs are 388-280 as favourite and 196-269 as underdog, and 320-263 at home (55% of 583 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | MIN | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 389-248 | 388-280 |
| As underdog | 209-285 | 196-269 |
| At home | 325-249 | 320-263 |
| On the road | 286-297 | 277-300 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →