Detroit Red Wings
7-8-3
Florida Panthers
9-7-2
Win Probability
The Detroit Red Wings travel to face the Florida Panthers in a matchup where the simulation favours the home side clearly. Matthew Tkachuk stands out among Florida's threats with a 71% chance of recording at least one point, while Detroit's Lucas Raymond (62%) and Alex DeBrincat (61%) project as the visitors' most likely contributors. The game turns on whether Detroit can generate enough offence to offset Florida's scoring advantage; AccuScore's model projects the Panthers to outscore the Red Wings by roughly half a goal. On games shaped like this one, AccuScore's favoured side won 54% of the time across nearly 11,000 graded matchups. For Detroit to pull off the upset, it would need both Raymond and DeBrincat to produce while containing Tkachuk and the Panthers' secondary threats.
AccuScore's simulation of the first period, priced against the books' 1st-period lines.
Leads after the 1st
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | FLA | EV | DET | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -161 | -3.1% | +134 | -0.7% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -164 | -3.4% | +143 | +1.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | 5.5 | -141 | -4.0% | +102 | -3.3% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Florida Panthers 58% to beat Detroit Red Wings (42%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Florida Panthers the more likely winner at 58%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Florida Panthers a 58% chance of beating Detroit Red Wings, against 42% for Detroit Red Wings. Florida Panthers are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Detroit Red Wings (7-8 so far) project to finish 36.6–37.0 and make the playoffs in 15% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Florida Panthers (9-7 so far) project to finish 41.1–33.8 and make the playoffs in 37% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Red Wings | 36.6–37.0 | 1% | 15% |
| Florida Panthers | 41.1–33.8 | 3% | 37% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NHL team's projection →
How Detroit Red Wings and Florida Panthers come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Detroit Red Wings have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-W, most recent first).
Florida Panthers have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 51 times since 2012: Detroit Red Wings 15, Florida Panthers 36. The last meeting, on Nov 2, 2026, finished Detroit Red Wings 5, Florida Panthers 3.
Detroit Red Wings are 207-171 as favourite and 265-445 as underdog, and 215-339 on the road (39% of 554 games, 2011–2026).
Florida Panthers are 395-261 as favourite and 218-281 as underdog, and 341-250 at home (58% of 591 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | DET | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 207-171 | 395-261 |
| As underdog | 265-445 | 218-281 |
| At home | 269-285 | 341-250 |
| On the road | 215-339 | 289-309 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →