NHL
Buffalo Sabres
8-6-3
Chicago Blackhawks
4-13-1
Win Probability
Buffalo Sabres visit Chicago Blackhawks in a matchup where the simulation favours the visitors. Tage Thompson carries a 64% chance of recording a point for Buffalo, while Chicago's Connor Bedard matches that projection despite playing at home. The game turns on whether either team's supporting cast can generate secondary scoring: Tyler Bertuzzi sits at just 49% to record a point for the Blackhawks, and Zach Benson projects to 60% for the Sabres. On games shaped this way, AccuScore's model has won 54% of the time across nearly 11,000 graded contests. For Chicago to pull the upset, it would need to overcome Buffalo's offensive depth and keep the game tight enough that home-ice advantage matters.
AccuScore's simulation of the first period, priced against the books' 1st-period lines.
Leads after the 1st
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | CHI | EV | BUF | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +124 | -3.0% | -161 | -3.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +131 | -1.5% | -151 | -1.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | 6.5 | -115 | -4.2% | -120 | -3.2% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Buffalo Sabres 58% to beat Chicago Blackhawks (42%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Buffalo Sabres the more likely winner at 58%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Chicago Blackhawks a 42% chance of beating Buffalo Sabres, against 58% for Buffalo Sabres. Chicago Blackhawks are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Buffalo Sabres (8-6 so far) project to finish 42.0–32.0 and make the playoffs in 46% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Chicago Blackhawks (4-13 so far) project to finish 29.0–46.6 and make the playoffs in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Sabres | 42.0–32.0 | 5% | 46% |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 29.0–46.6 | <1% | 1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NHL team's projection →
How Buffalo Sabres and Chicago Blackhawks come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Buffalo Sabres have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
Chicago Blackhawks have won 0 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 23 times since 2012: Buffalo Sabres 11, Chicago Blackhawks 12. The last meeting, on Oct 3, 2026, finished Chicago Blackhawks 3, Buffalo Sabres 4.
Buffalo Sabres are 152-117 as favourite and 302-504 as underdog, and 215-334 on the road (39% of 549 games, 2011–2026).
Chicago Blackhawks are 253-191 as favourite and 243-435 as underdog, and 272-294 at home (48% of 566 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | BUF | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 152-117 | 253-191 |
| As underdog | 302-504 | 243-435 |
| At home | 250-301 | 272-294 |
| On the road | 215-334 | 233-338 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →