NHL
Winnipeg Jets
7-8-3
Dallas Stars
10-5-2
Win Probability
The Dallas Stars host the Winnipeg Jets in a matchup where the simulation clearly favours the home side. Kyle Connor projects to 3.2 shots on goal for the Jets, while Dallas's Jason Robertson lands at 3.3—nearly identical volume from each team's primary threats. Mark Scheifele has a 61% chance of registering a point for Winnipeg, compared to Mikko Rantanen's 67% for the Stars, a gap that reflects the simulation's lean toward Dallas. On games shaped like this one, AccuScore's model won 61% of the time across 5,656 graded contests. The Jets would need to suppress Dallas's shot generation and convert their limited chances to pull off the upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first period, priced against the books' 1st-period lines.
Leads after the 1st
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | DAL | EV | WIN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -191 | -3.8% | +166 | +2.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -179 | -2.7% | +155 | +0.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | 5.5 | -125 | -4.4% | -110 | -2.9% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Dallas Stars 61% to beat Winnipeg Jets (39%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Dallas Stars the more likely winner at 61%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Dallas Stars a 61% chance of beating Winnipeg Jets, against 39% for Winnipeg Jets. Dallas Stars are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Winnipeg Jets (7-8 so far) project to finish 37.4–36.4 and make the playoffs in 23% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Dallas Stars (10-5 so far) project to finish 48.2–26.8 and make the playoffs in 87% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winnipeg Jets | 37.4–36.4 | 1% | 23% |
| Dallas Stars | 48.2–26.8 | 22% | 87% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NHL team's projection →
How Winnipeg Jets and Dallas Stars come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Winnipeg Jets have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-L, most recent first).
Dallas Stars have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 53 times since 2012: Winnipeg Jets 25, Dallas Stars 28. The last meeting, on Oct 22, 2026, finished Winnipeg Jets 2, Dallas Stars 3.
Winnipeg Jets are 350-229 as favourite and 241-305 as underdog, and 271-303 on the road (47% of 574 games, 2011–2026).
Dallas Stars are 424-290 as favourite and 208-255 as underdog, and 347-257 at home (57% of 604 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | WIN | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 350-229 | 424-290 |
| As underdog | 241-305 | 208-255 |
| At home | 332-246 | 347-257 |
| On the road | 271-303 | 304-299 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →