Winnipeg Jets
8-8-3
Chicago Blackhawks
4-13-1
Win Probability
The Chicago Blackhawks host a Winnipeg Jets squad that the simulation leans toward slightly in this matchup. Mark Scheifele has a 68% chance of recording at least one point, while Kyle Connor projects 3.6 shots on goal; on Chicago's side, Connor Bedard carries a 65% chance to post a point. The outcome hinges on whether the Jets' depth forwards can sustain pressure, since the model's lean is narrow—AccuScore has won 54% of similarly shaped games across nearly 11,000 graded contests. For Chicago to pull off the upset, it would need to tighten the game in the third period and capitalize on the Blackhawks' home-ice opportunity.
AccuScore's simulation of the first period, priced against the books' 1st-period lines.
Leads after the 1st
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | CHI | EV | WIN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +129 | +0.8% | -161 | -4.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +131 | +1.3% | -151 | -3.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | 6.5 | -110 | -4.5% | -135 | -4.5% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Winnipeg Jets 56% to beat Chicago Blackhawks (44%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Winnipeg Jets the more likely winner at 56%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Chicago Blackhawks a 44% chance of beating Winnipeg Jets, against 56% for Winnipeg Jets. Chicago Blackhawks are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Winnipeg Jets (8-8 so far) project to finish 38.2–35.7 and make the playoffs in 26% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Chicago Blackhawks (4-13 so far) project to finish 28.9–46.7 and make the playoffs in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winnipeg Jets | 38.2–35.7 | 1% | 26% |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 28.9–46.7 | <1% | 1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NHL team's projection →
How Winnipeg Jets and Chicago Blackhawks come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Winnipeg Jets have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
Chicago Blackhawks have won 1 of their last 5 (W-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 49 times since 2011: Winnipeg Jets 32, Chicago Blackhawks 17. The last meeting, on Oct 15, 2026, finished Winnipeg Jets 3, Chicago Blackhawks 4.
Winnipeg Jets are 350-229 as favourite and 241-305 as underdog, and 271-303 on the road (47% of 574 games, 2011–2026).
Chicago Blackhawks are 253-191 as favourite and 243-435 as underdog, and 272-294 at home (48% of 566 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | WIN | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 350-229 | 253-191 |
| As underdog | 241-305 | 243-435 |
| At home | 332-246 | 272-294 |
| On the road | 271-303 | 233-338 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →