Colorado Avalanche
11-6-2
Montreal Canadiens
11-3-4
Win Probability
This matchup between the Colorado Avalanche and Montreal Canadiens shapes up as a coin-flip, with the simulation barely favoring Colorado. Nathan MacKinnon projects a 69% chance of at least one point, while Montreal's Cole Caufield carries a 58% probability and is expected to fire 3.2 shots on goal. The game turns on scoring depth: AccuScore projects nearly identical totals for both sides, a rare occurrence that hinges on whether secondary contributors step up. In similar games across AccuScore's history, the favored side won 54% of the time. For Montreal to pull the upset at home, the Canadiens would need Nick Suzuki, who has a 63% chance of recording a point, to lead a strong offensive showing while containing MacKinnon's production.
AccuScore's simulation of the first period, priced against the books' 1st-period lines.
Leads after the 1st
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | MON | EV | COL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -107 | -2.8% | -107 | -0.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -114 | -4.2% | -101 | +0.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | 6.5 | -115 | -2.7% | -120 | -4.7% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Colorado Avalanche 51% to beat Montreal Canadiens (49%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Colorado Avalanche the more likely winner at 51%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Montreal Canadiens a 49% chance of beating Colorado Avalanche, against 51% for Colorado Avalanche. Montreal Canadiens are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Colorado Avalanche (11-6 so far) project to finish 50.1–25.7 and make the playoffs in 93% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Montreal Canadiens (11-3 so far) project to finish 46.1–27.0 and make the playoffs in 78% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Avalanche | 50.1–25.7 | 30% | 93% |
| Montreal Canadiens | 46.1–27.0 | 19% | 78% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NHL team's projection →
How Colorado Avalanche and Montreal Canadiens come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Colorado Avalanche have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-W-L-L, most recent first).
Montreal Canadiens have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 22 times since 2011: Colorado Avalanche 13, Montreal Canadiens 9. The last meeting, on Jan 29, 2026, finished Colorado Avalanche 3, Montreal Canadiens 7.
Colorado Avalanche are 446-257 as favourite and 190-273 as underdog, and 296-298 on the road (50% of 594 games, 2011–2026).
Montreal Canadiens are 244-197 as favourite and 283-420 as underdog, and 283-300 at home (49% of 583 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | COL | MON |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 446-257 | 244-197 |
| As underdog | 190-273 | 283-420 |
| At home | 349-244 | 283-300 |
| On the road | 296-298 | 255-327 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →