Detroit Red Wings
7-9-3
Tampa Bay Lightning
12-4-2
Win Probability
Tampa Bay Lightning host Detroit Red Wings in a matchup where the simulation clearly favors the home side. Nikita Kucherov projects as a dominant force for Tampa Bay, with a 79% chance of recording at least one point, while Jake Guentzel carries a 68% probability of doing the same. For Detroit, Lucas Raymond and Alex DeBrincat present the visiting team's scoring hopes, each showing a 59% and 57% chance of a point respectively. On games shaped like this one, AccuScore's favored side has won 61% of the time across more than 5,600 graded contests. Detroit would need to exploit any gaps in Tampa Bay's depth and lean heavily on its scoring threats to pull off the upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first period, priced against the books' 1st-period lines.
Leads after the 1st
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | TB | EV | DET | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -250 | -3.2% | +198 | -0.7% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -235 | -2.3% | +202 | -0.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | 6.5 | -106 | -3.0% | -129 | -4.2% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Tampa Bay Lightning 67% to beat Detroit Red Wings (33%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Tampa Bay Lightning the more likely winner at 67%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Tampa Bay Lightning a 67% chance of beating Detroit Red Wings, against 33% for Detroit Red Wings. Tampa Bay Lightning are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Detroit Red Wings (7-9 so far) project to finish 36.2–37.4 and make the playoffs in 14% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Tampa Bay Lightning (12-4 so far) project to finish 49.4–26.0 and make the playoffs in 88% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Red Wings | 36.2–37.4 | 1% | 14% |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 49.4–26.0 | 34% | 88% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NHL team's projection →
How Detroit Red Wings and Tampa Bay Lightning come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Detroit Red Wings have won 0 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
Tampa Bay Lightning have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 64 times since 2011: Detroit Red Wings 22, Tampa Bay Lightning 42. The last meeting, on Nov 3, 2026, finished Detroit Red Wings 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4.
Detroit Red Wings are 207-171 as favourite and 265-446 as underdog, and 215-340 on the road (39% of 555 games, 2011–2026).
Tampa Bay Lightning are 579-347 as favourite and 135-163 as underdog, and 409-216 at home (65% of 625 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | DET | TB |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 207-171 | 579-347 |
| As underdog | 265-446 | 135-163 |
| At home | 269-285 | 409-216 |
| On the road | 215-340 | 320-301 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →