Edmonton Oilers
14-3-3
Toronto Maple Leafs
8-10-2
Win Probability
The Edmonton Oilers travel to Toronto to face the Maple Leafs in a matchup where the simulation leans slightly toward the visitors. Connor McDavid has an 81% chance of recording at least one point, while Leon Draisaitl projects to 3.4 shots on goal; Toronto counters with William Nylander at 64% to contribute a point and Auston Matthews averaging 3.1 shots. The game hinges on whether Edmonton's depth can sustain pressure through sixty minutes, as the model sees a relatively low-scoring outcome despite the Oilers' talent advantage. On games shaped like this one, AccuScore's model has won 54% of the time across nearly 11,000 graded contests. For Toronto to pull the upset, the Maple Leafs would need their top-six forwards to generate secondary scoring beyond their projected contributors.
AccuScore's simulation of the first period, priced against the books' 1st-period lines.
Leads after the 1st
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | TOR | EV | EDM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +114 | -4.0% | -143 | -1.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +121 | -2.5% | -140 | -1.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | 6.5 | -135 | -2.0% | -102 | -5.5% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Edmonton Oilers 57% to beat Toronto Maple Leafs (43%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Edmonton Oilers the more likely winner at 57%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Toronto Maple Leafs a 43% chance of beating Edmonton Oilers, against 57% for Edmonton Oilers. Toronto Maple Leafs are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Edmonton Oilers (14-3 so far) project to finish 48.4–26.2 and make the playoffs in 93% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Toronto Maple Leafs (8-10 so far) project to finish 37.2–38.0 and make the playoffs in 14% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Edmonton Oilers | 48.4–26.2 | 41% | 93% |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 37.2–38.0 | 1% | 14% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NHL team's projection →
How Edmonton Oilers and Toronto Maple Leafs come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Edmonton Oilers have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-W-L-L, most recent first).
Toronto Maple Leafs have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 34 times since 2012: Edmonton Oilers 9, Toronto Maple Leafs 25. The last meeting, on Oct 24, 2026, finished Toronto Maple Leafs 7, Edmonton Oilers 2.
Edmonton Oilers are 357-259 as favourite and 230-324 as underdog, and 281-318 on the road (47% of 599 games, 2011–2026).
Toronto Maple Leafs are 388-280 as favourite and 196-270 as underdog, and 320-264 at home (55% of 584 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | EDM | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 357-259 | 388-280 |
| As underdog | 230-324 | 196-270 |
| At home | 315-278 | 320-264 |
| On the road | 281-318 | 277-300 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →