Buffalo Sabres
8-7-3
Dallas Stars
10-5-2
Win Probability
The Dallas Stars host the Buffalo Sabres in a matchup where the simulation favours the home side clearly. Dallas pair Mikko Rantanen and Jason Robertson project to 70% and 69% chances of recording a point respectively, while Buffalo's Tage Thompson sits at 57%. The game turns on shot volume: Robertson's projected 3.5 shots pace the board, and if Dallas converts at even a modest rate, they should control the outcome. On similar games, the model's favoured side won 54% of the time over nearly 11,000 tests. For Buffalo to pull the upset, Thompson and Jack Quinn (52% point projection) would need to drive more than their projected offensive contribution while the Sabres limit Robertson's impact.
AccuScore's simulation of the first period, priced against the books' 1st-period lines.
Leads after the 1st
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | DAL | EV | BUF | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -148 | -1.6% | +129 | -1.7% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -145 | -1.2% | +127 | -2.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | 6.5 | -106 | -3.5% | -129 | -3.8% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Dallas Stars 58% to beat Buffalo Sabres (42%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Dallas Stars the more likely winner at 58%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Dallas Stars a 58% chance of beating Buffalo Sabres, against 42% for Buffalo Sabres. Dallas Stars are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Buffalo Sabres (8-7 so far) project to finish 40.7–33.4 and make the playoffs in 37% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Dallas Stars (10-5 so far) project to finish 48.2–26.8 and make the playoffs in 86% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Sabres | 40.7–33.4 | 3% | 37% |
| Dallas Stars | 48.2–26.8 | 20% | 86% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NHL team's projection →
How Buffalo Sabres and Dallas Stars come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Buffalo Sabres have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
Dallas Stars have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 24 times since 2012: Buffalo Sabres 8, Dallas Stars 16. The last meeting, on Oct 8, 2026, finished Dallas Stars 4, Buffalo Sabres 0.
Buffalo Sabres are 152-117 as favourite and 302-505 as underdog, and 215-334 on the road (39% of 549 games, 2011–2026).
Dallas Stars are 424-290 as favourite and 208-255 as underdog, and 347-257 at home (57% of 604 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | BUF | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 152-117 | 424-290 |
| As underdog | 302-505 | 208-255 |
| At home | 250-302 | 347-257 |
| On the road | 215-334 | 304-299 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →